Following last month’s ‘deflationary’ print (-0.1% MoM), analysts expected headline CPI to rise 0.2% MoM and they were spot on, shifting the YoY CPI print to 2.9% (from 3.0%) – the lowest since March 2021…

Goods deflation continues to drag overall CPI lower…

For context, Goods prices are down 1.9% YoY – the biggest deflationary impulse since 2004. Services prices continue to rise YoY but at the slowest pace since 2022…

The 3m and 6m annualized CPI rates continue to trend lower (with Energy a particularly volatile factor)….

Core CPI also rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), and the YoY rate of inflation slowed to 3.2% (from 3.3%) – the lowest since April 2021…

While Core CPI is slowing YoY, the Core goods deflation appears to have stalled…

However, that is the 50th straight month of MoM increases in Core CPI, and a record high…

Under the hood, used car prices fell 2.3% along with airline fares (-1.2%) while Car insurance costs jumped 1.2% and furniture prices rose 0.3%…

Perhaps more worrying is the fact that rent inflation has stopped falling…

July Shelter inflation up 0.33% MoM and up 5.05% YoY vs 5.16% in June

July Rent Inflation up 0.42% MoM and up 5.09% YoY vs 5.07% in June

Finally, the so-called SuperCore CPI rose 0.2% MoM (same as the rest), dragging the YoY down to 4.73% (still notably elevated)…

Transportation Services jumped notably MoM..

So, is this ‘good’ news or bad news?

Finally, money supply growth is reaccelerating…

Is this the trough for CPI?

Will The Fed really cut rates as rent inflation inflects higher for the first time since 2023?