Out of the caterwaul of cries proclaiming that Russian collusion, and Russian influence operations, were the only reason Donald Trump won the 2016 US election (a hoax funded and promoted by his opponent, Hillary Clinton), a website which claimed to track said Kremlin efforts sprung forth, and was used to justify baseless allegations;

a widely-cited, (indirectly) state-sponsored propaganda tool.

The website claims to monitor a secret list of Twitter accounts which they accused of Kremlin control, however it's impossible to verify their claims as the group has never disclosed their methodology.

As Matt Taibbi notes via

And now, Taibbi has torn Hamilton 68's 'black box' asunder after reviewing the latest batch of "Twitter Files."

1.THREAD: Twitter Files #15 MOVE OVER, JAYSON BLAIR: TWITTER FILES EXPOSE NEXT GREAT MEDIA FRAUD pic.twitter.com/bLRpDpuWql

-- Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 27, 2023

As Taibbi notes via :

Ambitious media frauds Stephen Glass and Jayson Blair crippled the reputations of the and , respectively, by slipping years of invented news stories into their pages. Thanks to the Twitter Files, we can welcome a new member to their infamous club: Hamilton 68.

If one goes by volume alone, this oft-cited neoliberal think-tank that spawned hundreds of fraudulent headlines and TV news segments may go down as the single greatest case of media fabulism in American history. Virtually every major news organization in America is implicated, including NBC, CBS, ABC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC, and the . alone did at least 14 stories pegged to the group's "research." Even fact-checking sites like and cited Hamilton 68 as sources.

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An American group made false claims about Russian election interference to interfere with American elections https://t.co/Bpej1UOlOw

-- Mr. Tweet (@elonmusk) January 27, 2023

Twitter thought they were full of shit

Taibbi reveals that Twitter was concerned enough about Hamilton 68's claims that they ordered a forensic analysis which found that of 644 accounts, just 36 were registered in Russia - many of which were associated with news outlet RT.

As Taibbi further notes (emphasis ours):

Examining further, Twitter execs were shocked. ," largely in the U.S., Canada, and Britain. Grasping right away that Twitter might be implicated in a moral outrage, they wrote that these account-holders "need to know they've been unilaterally labeled Russian stooges without evidence or recourse."

10. The secret ingredient to Hamilton 68's analytical method? A list: "Our analysis has linked 600 Twitter accounts to Russian influence activities online," was how the site put it at launch. pic.twitter.com/8ipRLSfzOm

-- Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 27, 2023

Other comments in internal company emails:

13."These accounts," they concluded, "are neither strongly Russian nor strongly bots." "No evidence to support the statement that the dashboard is a finger on the pulse of Russian information ops." "Hardly illuminating a massive influence operation." pic.twitter.com/LMrgWVKe7k

-- Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 27, 2023

Declared Trust and Safety chief Yoel Roth: "I think we need to just call this out on the bullshit it is."

The two founders of Hamilton 68, the blue-and-red team of former counselor to Marco Rubio Jamie Fly and Hillary for America Foreign Policy Advisor Laura Rosenberger, told they couldn't reveal the names of the accounts because "the Russians will simply shut them down." , right. One look at the list reveals the real reason they couldn't make it public.

This was not faulty science. It was a scam. Instead of tracking how "Russia" influenced American attitudes, Hamilton 68 simply collected a handful of mostly real, mostly American accounts, and described their organic conversations as Russian scheming. As Roth put it, "Virtually any conclusion drawn from [the dashboard] will take conversations in conservative circles on Twitter and accuse them of being Russian."

Twitter execs wanted to out Hamilton 68!?

"Why can't we say we've investigated… and citing Hamilton 68 is being wrong, irresponsible, and biased?" one exec asked, after Russians were blamed for hyping the #ParklandShooting hashtag.

Trust and Safety head Yoel Roth even wanted to confront Hamilton 68 - writing in one email "My recommendation at this stage is an ultimatum: you release the list or we do."

"I also have been very frustrated in not calling out Hamilton 68 more publicly, but understand we have to play a longer game here," said Carlos Monje, the future senior advisor to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

But Future White House and NSC spokesperson Emily Horne advised against it.

19."We have to be careful in how much we push back on ASD publicly," said future White House and NSC spokesperson Emily Horne. pic.twitter.com/BRZEESQZlT

-- Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 27, 2023

 As further notes:

"So the "legitimate people," as one Twitter exec called them, never found out they'd been used as fodder for mountains of news stories about "Russian influence." Because the #TwitterFiles contain the list, they've begun finding out."

Hamilton's victims speak out

"I'm shocked," said Sonia Monsour, who as a child lived through civil war in Lebanon. "Supposedly in a free world, we are being watched at many levels, by what we say online."

Another person alleged by Hamilton to be a Russian is Chicago-based lawyer David Shestokas.

"I've written a book about the U.S. Constitution," he said, adding "How I made a list like this is incredible to me."

24. "When I was growing up, my father told me about the McCarthyite blacklist," says Oregon native Jacob Levich. "As a child it would never have occurred to me that this would come back, in force and broadly, in a way… designed to undermine rights we hold dear."

-- Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 27, 2023

Continued:

26. I'm listed as a foreign bot?" said conservative media figure Dennis Michael Lynch. "As a proud taxpaying citizen, charitable family man, and honest son of a U.S. Marine, I deserve better. We all do!" pic.twitter.com/HhKE9FPfpO

-- Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 27, 2023

28.What makes this an important story is the sheer scale of the news footprint left by Hamilton 68's digital McCarthyism. The quantity of headlines and TV segments dwarfs the impact of individual fabulists like Jayson Blair or Stephen Glass. pic.twitter.com/zfyjLb5Tkq

-- Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 27, 2023

30.These stories raised fears in the population, and most insidious of all, were used to smear people like Tulsi Gabbard as foreign "assets," and drum up sympathy for political causes like Joe Biden's campaign by describing critics as Russian-aligned. pic.twitter.com/3lsuG1ZTrd

-- Matt Taibbi (@mtaibbi) January 27, 2023

And Elon with the last word:

Shame on @MSNBC for misleading the public! https://t.co/16VEGTjXnH

-- Mr. Tweet (@elonmusk) January 27, 2023

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A high-level Pfizer employee was caught on undercover camera by when he inadvertently dropped several bombshells which we're confident will be subject to extreme damage control over the coming weeks.

Jordon Trishton Walker, Pfizer's Director of R&D, Strategic Operations - and an mRNA Scientific Planner, said that the company is exploring a way to "mutate" COVID via "Directed Evolution" in order to anticipate new strains for their Covid-19 vaccine.

"One of the things we [Pfizer] are exploring is like, why don't we just mutate it [COVID] ourselves so we could create -- preemptively develop new vaccines, right? So, we have to do that. If we're gonna do that though, there's a risk of like, as you could imagine -- no one wants to be having a pharma company mutating f**king viruses," said Walker, adding that he believes Pfizer scientists are going about it slowly "because you obviously don't want to advertise that you are figuring out future mutations."

BREAKING: @Pfizer Exploring "Mutating" COVID-19 Virus For New Vaccines "Don't tell anyone this...There is a risk...have to be very controlled to make sure this virus you mutate doesn't create something...the way that the virus started in Wuhan, to be honest."#DirectedEvolution pic.twitter.com/xaRvlD5qTo

-- Project Veritas (@Project_Veritas) January 26, 2023

(Entire interview below)

Walker claims that "directed evolution" is different from Gain-of-Function research.

"Don't tell anyone. Promise you won't tell anyone. The way it [the experiment] would work is that we put the virus in monkeys, and we successively cause them to keep infecting each other, and we collect serial samples from them," he said, before saying calling the Covid-19 natural origins theory bullshit:

"You're not supposed to do Gain-of-Function research with viruses. Regularly not. We can do these selected structure mutations to make them more potent. There is research ongoing about that. I don't know how that is going to work. There better not be any more outbreaks because Jesus Christ," he continued.

"Directed evolution" https://t.co/lhnNMGCRAc

-- zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 26, 2023

Walker also admitted that Covid-19 mutations were going to be "a cash cow" for Pfizer.

Walker:Part of what they [Pfizer scientists] want to do is, to some extent, to try to figure out, you know, how there are all these new strains and variants that just pop up. So, it's like trying to catch them before they pop up and we can develop a vaccine prophylactically, like, for new variants. So, that's why they like, do it controlled in a lab, where they say this is a new epitope, and so if it comes out later on in the public, we already have a vaccine working.

Veritas Journalist:Oh my God. That's perfect. Isn't that the best business model though? Just control nature before nature even happens itself? Right?

Walker:Yeah. If it works.

Veritas Journalist:What do you mean if it works?

Walker:Because some of the times there are mutations that pop up that we are not prepared for. Like with Delta and Omicron. And things like that. Who knows? Either way, it's going to be a cash cow. COVID is going to be a cash cow for us for a while going forward. Like obviously.

Veritas Journalist:Well, I think the whole research of the viruses and mutating it, like, would be the ultimate cash cow.

Walker:Yeah, it'd be perfect.

He also explained that Big Pharma and government agencies such as the FDA are not working in the best interests of Americans.

Walker:[Big Pharma] is a revolving door for all government officials.

Veritas Journalist:Wow.

Walker:In any industry though. So, in the pharma industry, all the people who review our drugs -- eventually most of them will come work for pharma companies. And in the military, defense government officials eventually work for defense companies afterwards.

…

Veritas Journalist:How do you feel about that revolving door?

Walker:It's pretty good for the industry to be honest. It's bad for everybody else in America.

Veritas Journalist:Why is it bad for everybody else?

Walker:Because when the regulators reviewing our drugs know that once they stop regulating, they are going to work for the company, they are not going to be as hard towards the company that's going to give them a job.

Watch the entire video below: 

https://www.youtube.com/embed/ywlpArNWKxM

---

CLEAR YOUR CALENDAR @pfizer! I'm sure the committee to investigate Covid will have questions on this!! https://t.co/RRlW5edKmd

-- Ronny Jackson (@RonnyJacksonTX) January 26, 2023

Unsurprisingly: pic.twitter.com/38VRGrFUlt

-- Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) January 26, 2023

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A poll has found that the vast majority of Americans do not agree that there should be a blanket amnesty for immigrants who have cross the border into the United States illegally.

The survey, conducted by The Trafalgar Group in partnership with Convention of States Action, found that only fourteen percent agreed that citizenship should be granted to those have have entered illegally.

A total of 59.5 percent of Americans said that "those in review should complete their reviews and either be removed or granted asylum, and those here illegally should be expelled."

Meanwhile, 15 percent said that "only those in asylum review should be granted amnesty and citizenship."

Most interestingly, fewer than three percent of hispanic voters said that illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay permanently.

Even 36 percent of Democrats responded that no blanket amnesty should be enacted, compared to 30 percent who believe it should.

The same poll found that most Americans still want President Trump's border wall completed, with 62.6 percent agreeing that it is "essential to US National Security."

Highlighting the political divide on the wall, more than 86 percent of Democrats said they do not support it, while a massive majority of almost 93 percent of Republicans do support it.

Mark Meckler, President of Convention of States noted that "While Democrats continue to pander to Hispanics and pretend they want open borders and mass illegal immigration, the data overwhelmingly shows that they, as American citizens, want illegal immigrants expelled from the country."

"While it is the Biden Administration's responsibility to secure the border and expel those trying to enter illegally--and it has utterly failed to do so for two years--the new Congress has the ability to exercise vigorous oversight and put heat on the White House. Clearly, such oversight has the strong backing of voters," Meckler added.

The findings come as fresh figures released by the Customs and Border Protection Agency have revealed that a record amount of illegal crossings were recorded in December, with 17 individuals on the terrorism watchlist apprehended.

The numbers, released Friday, show that 251,487 illegal immigrants crossed the border in December, the highest monthly total in history.

CBP Figures Show Highest Monthly Total Of Illegal Crossings EVER Recorded

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The Ukrainian government on Tuesday confirmed the resignation of multiple high ranking officials amid large-scale corruption allegations, in what's being called the biggest mass resignation and graft scandal since the Russian invasion began.

Some dozen officials have quit their posts after a huge political shake-up over allegations and probes into cases ranging from bribery, to mismanagement of aid funds for purchasing food, to embezzlement, to driving expensive cars while common people suffer under wartime conditions.

A top presidential adviser and four deputy ministers - among these two defense officials, along with five regional governors were forced out of their posts. And among the regional governors to step down included officials overseeing regions which have seen intense fighting, including the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, where Russian forces have lately reported gains.

In reference to the announcement by a senior government official, Oleg Nemchinov, international reports detail the following list: 

Deputy Prosecutor General Oleskiy Symonenko

Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Ivan Lukeryu

Deputy Minister for Development of Communities and Territories Vyacheslav Negoda

Deputy Minister for Social Policy Vitaliy Muzychenk

And the regional governors of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson

And separately, "the defense ministry had earlier announced the resignation of deputy minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov, who was in charge of the army's logistical support, on the heels of accusations it was signing food contracts at inflated prices." 

In this case regarding the food contracts, Shapovalov is accused of signing a deal with an unknown, shady firm. In his role as deputy defense minister, his is the most notable and visible resignation. Crucially he would have had no small part in overseeing the billions of dollars flowing from the pockets of US and European taxpayers as authorized defense aid.

He purchased military rations at inflated prices in what appears a scheme to line the pockets of contractors, and potentially involving kickbacks to himself.

Deputy Minister of Defense Vyacheslav Shapovalov has resigned over to the food procurement scandal. https://t.co/kP3U8CjHd2

-- Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 24, 2023

While the defense ministry is still trying to downplay it as a "technical error" - reviews of the details to the scandal: 

This is two to three times higher than current rates for such food items, reports say. Shapovalov's resignation letter indicated he's stepping down so as "not to pose a threat to the stable supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a result of a campaign of accusations related to the purchase of food services."

There's also deputy head of the Zelensky administration Kyrylo Tymoshenko, who stands accused of living a lavish wartime lifestyle. Many current mainstream media reports on Tuesday are burying some of the key verified details. For example, BBC writes simply that

But starting in early December local Ukrainian outlets, angered at the posh lifestyle of Ukrainian leaders at a moment tens of millions are without power amid Russian aerial bombardment of the nation's power grid, began confirming that Tymoshenko drove high-end sports cars in and out of the capital, to and from mansions which typically range in cost from $10,000 to $25,000 per month. 

One outlet published a photo series entitled

US taxpayer dollars at work in Ukraine...

As another example of Western MSM seeking to downplay or soften this latest wave of graft-related forced resignations, the AFP writes, "Ukraine has long suffered endemic corruption, including among the political elite, but efforts to stamp out graft have been overshadowed by Moscow's full-scale war that began in February." And yet officials like Tymoshenko were spotted around Kiev and oligarchs' neighborhoods driving luxury sports cars for months throughout the war.

Additionally, there's this laughable and embarrassing line out of the AFP report: "Kyiv's Western allies, who have allocated billions of dollars in financial and military support, have been pushing for anti-corruption reforms for years, sometimes as a precondition for aid."

From a government supposedly "pushing anti-corruption reforms for years" to over $100 billion in US defense and foreign aid being pledged to Kiev's coffers over the past year... to now this from within the heart of the Zelensky administration:

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the office of the president of Ukraine, confirms he submitted his resignation to Zelensky. In his IG post he thanks Ze for "the opportunity to do good deeds every minute of every day," and many others including his family and Ukrainian officials. pic.twitter.com/AwAiH8txMb

-- Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 24, 2023

It doesn't stop at posh and expensive cars, but the controversy has even extended to luxury vacations abroad as Ukrainians suffer the deprivations of war at home. "The departure of Symonenko, a deputy prosecutor general, comes after media reports that he spent a holiday in Spain this winter, reportedly using a car belonging to a Ukrainian businessman." The government has as a result now reportedly barred top officials from vacationing abroad as a result of the scandal.

Just prior to the wave of resignations, another official named Vasyl Lozynskiy was accused of receiving bribes to "facilitate" the purchase of generators at greatly hiked-up prices. Crucially, Lozynskiy as Deputy Minister of Infrastructure and Communities Development would have also been directly involved in overseeing how billions of dollars in Western humanitarian and infrastructure assistance gets doled out.

Commenting on this, mainstream media is now belatedly acknowledging a fact that's long been well-known, but which would get a person 'canceled' in public discourse if they dared pointed it out:

And now Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov is under scrutiny related to the growing probe and scandal. Meanwhile, as news of the widening scandal hits world headlines...

Addressing a Chambers of Commerce meeting in Boca Raton today, Zelensky thanks BlackRock, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others for their support of Ukraine. Adds that sending Ukraine heavier weapons, like Abrams tanks, represents a "big business" opportunity for US corporations pic.twitter.com/N1h8OVECLt

-- Michael Tracey (@mtracey) January 24, 2023

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People are connecting dots all over the place, and it's looking more like a hornet's nest was just kicked open.

Look who just got arrested for a Russian Oligarch-related issue. The FBI Agent that Comey put in charge of counter-intelligence in the FBI's NY Field Office. Just. Before. The. 2016. Election. P.S. BTW, Hillary's campaign HQ was in Brooklyn. h/t .@TrustIsEarnd https://t.co/SVvZ5lhJcg pic.twitter.com/0kDhIaHrsG

-- FoiaFan (@15poundstogo) January 23, 2023

Another delicious bit--here is Charlie & his fellow spook @BillEvanina devastated over @Comey's firing. For people like this, memes couldn't even enhance the scenario; THEY are the meme. By the way, any comment on the recent news, @BillEvanina?https://t.co/IyuKTFXKMU@fpa1918 https://t.co/rQVFPenAkS pic.twitter.com/70zFOUXZut

-- Marco Polo (@MarcoPolo501c3) January 23, 2023

Or how Steele helped set up a meeting in 2015 between Deripaska and the FBI which directly involved Ohr. Or Steele's lobbying of Ohr in early 2016 on Deripaska's behalf. Odd that you leave those things out...

-- Jeff Carlson (@themarketswork) January 23, 2023

I'm just going to repeat this for the people in back An FBI official who investigated Trump for illegal ties to Russia but found none has just been arrested for his own illegal ties to Russia Internalize this

-- Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) January 23, 2023

The Russia Collusion Hoax was a masterful work of projection. They paid Danchenko. They paid Steele. They paid Halper. They even paid Twitter. They got paid by Deripaska. So they chased Trump.https://t.co/KjgHxts3lO

-- Noel Cooke (@NoelCooke_) January 23, 2023

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A former top FBI counterintelligence official - in fact, the guy who received the tip that supposedly kicked off the Trump-Russia investigation - has been arrested and charged with violating US sanctions on Russia by taking secret payments from a Russian oligarch in order to investigate another oligarch.

Federal prosecutors in Manhattan charged Charles McGonigal, former special agent in charge of the FBI's New York counterintelligence desk, with taking secret payments from Oleg V. Deripaska - which violated US sanctions by agreeing to help the Russian billionaire, who himself was indicted last year on sanctions charges. McGonical notably retired in 2018.

During his days in counterintelligence, McGonical was responsible for supervising and participating in investigations of Russian oligarchs, including Deripaska.

According to his lawyer, "Charlie served the United States capably, effectively, for decades," adding "We have closely reviewed the accusations made by the government and we look forward to receiving discovery so we can get a view on what the evidence is upon which the government intends to rely."

McGonigal was the FBI's recipient of the fake tip from Alexander Downer that supposedly started the Trump/Russia investigation. He was also involved in the fake Carter Page ("Crossfire Dragon") investigation. https://t.co/MDwosXQaqP pic.twitter.com/tGjDL5zFq6

-- Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) January 23, 2023

Former colleagues who worked closely with McGonigal were reportedly 'shocked' at his arrest.

A second man, Sergey Shestakov, was also indicted in the case. He's a former Soviet and Russian diplomat who later obtained US citizenship and worked as a Russian interpreter for courts and government offices.

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A ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the US went into effect late last year, forcing Russia to find more buyers in the eastern part of the world. Besides China's and India's surging appetite for Russian crude imports, a flood of cheap oil is pouring into Singapore. It's being blended and then re-exported globally as traders reap huge profits. Recall that Russian energy products were sold to China and repackaged for European markets last summer. 

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe was Moscow's largest crude and refined petroleum products customer. But those days are over as Western sanctions forced Russia to rejigger its energy supply chains towards the East. 

Moscow realized besides expanding pipelines to Asia and elsewhere, which could take years to develop infrastructure to increase flows, a fleet of shadow tankers would be its best bet to transport the oil. 

Now demand is soaring in Singapore for storage tanks as inexpensive Russian crude finds a home, according to Bloomberg. 

Unlike many Western countries, Singapore has yet to ban Russian oil or petroleum products, although banks based in the country are prohibited from financing or dealing directly with Russian countries. 

In the coming weeks, Europe prepares to enforce new sanctions on Russian petroleum products, which will only increase Russia-to-Asia flows that will be pushed to hubs like ones in Singapore, mixing cheap Russian fuels with other sources for re-distribution globally. 

Six-month leases for Singapore fuel oil or crude oil storage jumped by as much as 20% last year, according to local tank operator firms, including Advario, Jurong Port, Horizon, and Royal Vopak. 

Ship tracking data by Vortexa Ltd. showed oil-receiving terminals more than doubled volumes of Russian naphtha and fuel oil in December versus a year ago. Terminals received 2.6 million barrels of naphtha, nearly 40 times higher than the volume one year ago. 

Russian naphtha sitting in Singapore tank farms is being quickly re-exported to other Asia markets, according to Armaan Ashraf, global head of natural gas liquids at industry consultant FGE. 

William Tan, senior vice president of fuel consultancy Miyabi Industries, said Singapore tank farm storage is becoming very popular with traders taking in cheap Russian crude, blending it, and exporting it elsewhere for "very good" profit margins. He said traders are reaping 20% profit margins. 

Russia will need to expand its shadow fleet tankers as energy supply chains are rejiggered because of Western sanctions. Traders are capitalizing on these new trade flows. Still, the West has yet to cripple Russia but only bring forward a world where energy is traded in anything but dollars.  

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One week ago we looked at the latest consumer credit data where we found not one but two flashing red alerts:

First, the total amount of credit card debt hit a new all time high, which however was to be expected from one of the most consistently increasing series across all US economic data, and one which predictably is correlated to the US savings rate which is at all time lows.

Second, thanks to the Fed's crusade to spark a great recession, the average rate across US credit cards just rose to an all time high 19%+

Summarizing these ominous trends we concluded that...

And while the big US banks are diversified enough - and flooded with enough reserves for now - to deflect attention from spiking charge offs rates on their balance sheets, even though as we discussed last week the credit loss provisions (a hedge against a spike in bad debt) across the Big Four banks did in fact jump the most in a decade (excluding the covid shock)...

... some of the smaller credit-card companies can no longer avoid the reality that the US consumer has finally cracked and a wave of defaults is coming.

Presenting Exhibit A: Discover Financial Services (DFS), a credit card issuer which traditionally targets to low to middle-income households, and which yesterday reported earnings that were so scary, Wall Street has uniformly dubbed them "shocking." But while the bulk of the company's historical results were actually not all that bad, it was its forecast that a stunner: in a presentation on its website, DFS forecast that its charge offs would climb as high as 3.9% this year (it gave a range of 3.50% to 3.90%) which is more than double the 1.82% net charge off rate it booked for all of 2022 and was about 100bps higher than the 2.8% consensus estimate.

Cutting to the chase, this is what the company's historical and projected charge offs look like:

And since this is a net number, the gross number will likely hit 5% or more, a level not seen outside of painful recessions.

As Bloomberg explains, credit cards typically reach their peak loss rates about 18 months after origination. That means that Discover is expecting losses to tick up this year on accounts it started in 2021, which was a much bigger year for credit-card growth than 2020, when the pandemic forced the company to curtail new business. Starting last year, Discover began gradually tightening underwriting standards by offering smaller lines of credit to new customers, although the combination of a recession plus tapped out consumers will ensure a surge in charge offs for that and any one vintage. 

Wall Street was predictably unhappy with this doubling in the company's charge off forecast. Here is a summary of analyst reactions:

Piper Sandler, Kevin Barker

While DFS's topline was stronger, it missed estimates mainly because of an increase in provisions due to outsize growth, along with higher operating expense growth Analyst notes the "rapid" net charge-off (NCO) growth will likely be an issue across the industry due to outsize growth the past two years

Oppenheimer, Dominick Gabriele

"Consensus shocker" is DFS's NCO guidance; even to reach the low end, it likely means charge-offs near 5% Peers may not share DFS's expected NCO normalization/ramp, yet it will likely make investors incrementally cautious on low FICO players, analyst says Notes that management team is generally conservative and believes that some investors will see the guidance as too bearish

KBW, Sanjay Sakhrani

Says that it was a better-than-expected quarter but the outlook for net charge-offs is likely weighing on the stock Notes that the forecast "likely contemplates a range of scenarios on the macroeconomic backdrop" Adds that while investors are "nervous" about credit quality, the guidance isn't "thesis- changing"

Citigroup, Arren Cyganovich

"We expect DFS shares to underperform peers on Thursday given a much higher expected 2023 net-charge off guide than the street" Says rest of the company's guidance was mixed but notes that "earnings materials lacked details of assumptions included in the guidance, which would appear to us to imply the beginnings of a mild recession assumed" "While likely a positive long-term, investors will likely question growing consumer loans by double digits as we likely enter into a recession"

Chief Executive Officer Roger Hochschild tried to put some lipstick on the big, and told Bloomberg that "The losses are going up from artificially low levels," adding that "overall, we feel really good about what we're seeing in our portfolio" the market did not share his sentiment and DFS shares tumbled as much as 7.7%, their biggest drop in 6 months before recovering some losses. The company's results also weighed on rivals Capital One and Synchrony, with all three credit-card issuers among the worst performers in the 67-company S&P 500 Financials Index.

As for the company's charge off forecast, we can assume that it was made with the company not making a recession its base case. So throw a recession in, a tapped-out consumer with a record low savings rate which means most middle class spending is now funded on credit, and you have an extremely explosive mixture just waiting for a match.

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For the last week and a half, defenders of President Joe Biden have said that the way he allegedly mishandled classified documents was not as dangerous, illegal, or inappropriate as the way former President Donald Trump allegedly mishandled classified documents.

But we now know that Hunter Biden was taking millions of dollars from businessmen tied to Chinese military intelligence while living at the home of his father, President Joe Biden, where classified documents, including ones relating to foreign nations, were recently found.

We additionally know that Hunter Biden was in the grip of a debilitating addiction to cocaine and alcohol and that he experienced frequent blackouts and loss of memory.

There is no evidence that Hunter Biden, willingly or unwillingly, sober or intoxicated, took classified documents from his father's residence in Delaware and gave them to his client, a Chinese businessman named Patrick Ho.

"There's no evidence that Hunter Biden accessed the documents, but -- God-forbid -- the opportunity existed for him to do so," said investigative journalist Peter Schweitzer, who has tracked the Biden family's business ties to the Chinese government, including military intelligence, over the last five years.

During the time that Hunter lived in his father's residence, between 2017 and 2018, Hunter and the entities he and his uncle, James Biden, President Biden's brother, controlled received at least $4.8 million from a Chinese energy conglomerate called CEFC, which is tied to the Chinese military. Hunter Biden received an additional $1 million from Patrick Ho, a CEFC official.

"After Ho is arrested in late 2017, the first phone call he makes is to James Biden, the president's brother, because he's looking for Hunter," said Schweitzer.

...

Hunter's former client Patrick Ho is a criminal convicted and sentenced to three years in prison. Ho was sentenced for his role in a multimillion-dollar effort to bribe leaders from Chad and Uganda. That appears to be what Ho was attempting to do with Hunter: bribe him in order to buy protection from his powerful father. A CEFC intermediary reached out to Hunter Biden in December 2015 to set up a meeting between Hunter and Ye Jianming, the founder and chairman of CEFC, according to emails from Hunter Biden's laptop hard drive. Hunter Biden at one point said he was working for Ye. Hunter, in a voicemail found on his laptop, tells a colleague,  "I'm representing the f**king spy chief of China."

...

What does it all mean? The evidence strongly suggests that the Chinese government was seeking to bribe the Biden family to gain advantages both in terms of energy and also to protect its sources.

...

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A former deputy director for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) admitted that he knew a "significant portion" of Hunter Biden's laptop "had to be real," but signed an October 2020 letter attacking the 's bombshell report anyway, the reports.

The official, Douglas Wise, was one of 51 former intelligence officials who said the 's report had the appearance of a Russian disinformation campaign.

"All of us figured that a significant portion of that content had to be real to make any Russian disinformation credible," in a comment to . "The letter said it had the earmarks of Russian deceit and we should consider that as a possibility," he continued.

"It did not say Hunter Biden was a good guy, it didn't say what he did was right and it wasn't exculpatory, it was just a cautionary letter."

Except, the letter concluded that "It is high time that Russia stops interfering in our democracy," and referenced "[o]ur view that the Russians are involved in the Hunter Biden email issue."

And as notes,

The infamous letter from the former intel officials (including such Democratic figures like John Brennan, James Clapper, Leon Panetta and Jeremy Bash) was used by the media to assure the public that there was nothing to see in the scandal. It was the perfect deflection in giving a cooperative media cover to bury the story of how the Biden family engaged in influence peddling worth millions with foreign figures, including some with foreign intelligence connections.

It worked beautifully. It was not until two years later that NPR, the New York Times, and other media outlets got around to telling the public the truth.

Now some of the signatories are trying to rehabilitate themselves. It is not hard. Figures like Bash have been rewarded for their loyalty. Others like Brennan and Clapper have become regulars on CNN to continue to give their takes on intelligence.

Wise, however, has tried to find some redeemable role in the letter. He told The Australian that "All of us figured that a significant portion of that content had to be real to make any Russian disinformation credible." So the emails and photos showing criminal acts with prostitutes and thousands of emails on influence peddling was likely true, but that truth only made them more dangerous forms of Russian disinformation.

It is that easy. True or not, the story was dangerous in detailing the corruption of the Biden family before the election. Done and done.

It also means that, under this dubious logic, you can spike any true story that is embarrassing to the President or the party as presumptive disinformation.

Indeed, Wise says that it was "no surprise" to learn that the emails that he helped spike were actually genuine.

He is not alone. Washington Post columnist Thomas Rid wrote that  "We must treat the Hunter Biden leaks as if they were a foreign intelligence operation -- even if they probably aren't."

Let that sink in for a second. It does not matter if these are real emails and not Russian disinformation. They probably are real but should be treated as disinformation even though American intelligence has repeatedly rebutted that claim.  It does not even matter that the computer was seized as evidence in a criminal fraud investigation or that a Biden confidant is now giving his allegations to the FBI under threat of criminal charges if he lies to investigators.

Yet, they still wanted the media to treat the story before the election as part of "Russian overt and covert activities that undermine US national security" as a story with "all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation."

Keep in mind that these "experts" literally had nothing beyond a potentially damaging story against the Bidens before an election. That was all that it took for these experts to rush out their letter.

Wise does not address that American intelligence reached the exact opposite conclusion and found no evidence -- none -- of Russian involvement or some foreign disinformation conspiracy.

Wise and the other signatories did not want to wait for any facts to support their claim. They rushed out the letter to an eagerly awaiting media to spike the story before the election. Now, they are seeking plausible deniability that they were political operatives sent on a political hit job. It is as implausible as calling a presumed true story "disinformation."

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