Hurricane Prep

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Global Intel Hub is a site dedicated to intelligence and analysis, and prepping (including financial prepping).  Hurricanes are part of nature and if you live or have a business in an affected area, we have prepared a list of resources to help guide your Hurricane Prep.  Print this page in case you don’t have access to the internet.  The URL of this page is www.globalintelhub.com/hurricane-prep

NHC Live Updates

Prep Guides and More

FEMA_2017_Hurricane_HTP_FINAL FEMA Hurricane Prep Guide

http://pleaseorderit.com/hurricane-prep  Order supplies such as food, fuel, first aid, and full emergency kits

https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes   The official USG Hurricane Prep page

South Carolina Hurricane Guide 2019 2019-hurricane-guide_website

Share this page on Twitter #Dorian2019

Evacuation Zones and Maps

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Dorian  Official National Hurricane Center (NHC) page for Dorian

https://www.floridadisaster.org/knowyourzone/  Florida Know your Zone and Hurricane Prep info

https://www.scemd.org/prepare/know-your-zone/ South Carolina Know your Zone and Hurricane Prep info

http://www.dot.ga.gov/DriveSmart/Emergency/Pages/HurricaneInfo.aspx

Hurricane Prep Supplies


Tools & Trackers

See the hurricane live with this cool data map

Gas Buddy – Track gas outages in your area

Live Update Pages

Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/cwmdmu/dorian_preparations_thread_august_28_2019/

Main Page https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/

Dorian Specific https://www.reddit.com/r/HurricaneDorian

Live Updates from NHC/NOAA

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 220247
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019

Sebastien continues to produce a central dense overcast and a large
band on the southeastern side of the circulation. Recent
scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are at least 45
kt and, since there has been little overall change in the satellite
presentation within the past several hours, the initial wind speed
will stay 50 kt.

Two notable changes have been made on this forecast.   As
foreshadowed in the previous forecast, the models are no longer
rapidly accelerating the storm to the northeast ahead of a
mid-latitude trough. Instead, there is better agreement tonight on a
steadier motion to the northeast due to the trough in the short
term.  Sebastien will then continue moving northeastward embedded in
the mid-latitude southwesterly flow over the weekend. The new
forecast is substantially slower than the last one, but is still on
the faster side of the guidance due to continuity concerns.

The second significant change is that Sebastien is no longer
expected to become a hurricane.  The cyclone will soon be moving
over sub-26C waters with strong shear, and it seems unlikely to
intensify much in these conditions.  Model intensity guidance
continues to decrease, and the NHC forecast follows that trend.
Weakening should start by the weekend over even cooler waters in a
high-shear environment, and these factors are forecast to cause
Sebastien to transition into a non-convective low or extratropical
cyclone in 36-48 h. Careful watchers of the forecast will note that
NHC has predicted extratropical transition at 48 h since Sebastien
was born over 48 h ago, and this timing has been pushed back
primarily due to the slower-than-expected motion.  Thus, this timing
can't be considered a particularly confident prediction until the
track forecast becomes more consistent.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 24.7N  57.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 26.0N  55.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 28.0N  51.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 30.3N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 32.7N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0000Z 37.5N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Posted: November 22, 2019, 2:47 am
Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 02:46:38 GMT

Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 02:46:38 GMT
Posted: November 22, 2019, 2:46 am
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019

685 
FONT15 KNHC 220246
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019               
0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Posted: November 22, 2019, 2:46 am
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 220245
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019
0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  57.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  57.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  58.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 26.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.0N  51.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.3N  47.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.7N  43.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 37.5N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  90SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N  57.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Posted: November 22, 2019, 2:45 am
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 220245
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019

...SEBASTIEN MOVING FASTER WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 57.8W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien
was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 57.8 West. Sebastien
is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast overnight, with
weakening beginning by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Posted: November 22, 2019, 2:45 am
...SEBASTIEN MOVING FASTER WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Nov 21 the center of Sebastien was located near 24.7, -57.8 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Posted: November 22, 2019, 2:45 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212314
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located several hundred miles north-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Posted: November 21, 2019, 11:14 pm

Hurricane Kit
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Hurricane Kit/Ride Out Items

  1. Flashlight(s), Lantern(s) (1 per person)

  2. Extra bulbs for flashlights / lanterns (IF APPLICABLE)

  3. Collapsible water containers (enough for 7 days at 1 gal/day per person)

  4. Portable radio and/or TV (I have Auvio 3.5″ that uses AA batteries)

  5. Weather radio

  6. At least 2 sets of extra batteries for all electronic devices

  7. Digital antenna for TV (if you have a generator)

  8. First aid kit

  9. Corded telephone with long cord

  10. Toolkit – hammer, screw drivers, pliers and assorted nails/screws

  11. Fire extinguisher (ABC type)

  12. Manual can opener

  13. Battery-operated fan

  14. Duct tape

  15. Blue tarp (15x20ft) and 100ft rope or cord

  16. Gloves

  17. Eye protection glasses

  18. Automobile power inverter

  19. Rain gear (poncho/raincoat)

  20. Matches / lighter

  21. Pocket knife/multi-tool

  22. Plastic garbage bags

  23. 5-gal gas cans (2-4) for car/generator WITH funnel (if needed)

  24. Disposable camera

  25. Battery-powered alarm clock (can use cell phone)

  26. Outdoor extension cords (2-3 50ft)

  27. Small window AC unit

  28. Generator and 4-8 quarts of extra oil

  29. Whistle

  30. Plastic sheeting

  31. Tree saw / axe / hatchet (Especially important if you are prone to flooding. Keep in attic.)

  32. 5-Watt USB Solar Charger (Huge for keeping phones charged)

  33. Headlamps.

  34. Tapcons

  35. Plywood Tapcons Washers Mason bits Plylox window clips

  36. Tarps, Plastic Sheeting, & Tie downs

  37. Music playing device (Bluetooth speaker) if your power situation is good

Personal Items:

  1. Prescription medications (2-4 week supply)

  2. Non-prescription drugs (aspirin or non-aspirin pain reliever)

  3. Mosquito repellent / sunscreen

  4. Pet medications (2-4 week supply)

  5. Pet cage (if traveling with pet)

  6. Emergency phone numbers

  7. Important documents (insurance/passports/Soc. Security card, medical records)

  8. Home PC backup disks/drive

  9. Moist wipes

  10. $100-$300 in extra cash (small bills)

  11. Extra set of car/house keys

  12. Disposable diapers

  13. Feminine supplies

  14. Personal hygiene items (toothpaste, deodorant, shampoo, soap)

  15. Toys/games for kids (deck of cards)

  16. Dawn Dish Soap

  17. Mosquito repellant

  18. Rain Boots

Food / Water:

  1. Water – 1-2 gal/person for 7 days

  2. Nonperishable food – enough for 7 days

  3. Peanut butter

  4. Bread

  5. Canned goods (fruit/vegetables/soup/meat/tuna/beans)

  6. Dried fruit

  7. Powdered milk

  8. Energy bars / breakfast bars

  9. Snacks (cookies / crackers / chips / nuts / candy)

  10. Boxed juices / energy drinks

  11. Cereals

  12. Dry & canned pet food

  13. Baby formula

  14. Camp stove and extra fuel

  15. Ice chest(s)

  16. Waterless soap

  17. Extra charcoal/propane for BBQ pit

  18. Disposable plates/cups/utensils/napkins

  19. Salt/pepper/sugar

  20. Aluminum foil

  21. Garbage bags

Paperwork, all in one place:

  1. Birth certificates

  2. Social security cards

  3. Marriage or divorce papers

  4. Passports

  5. Medical records or prescription info

  6. Homeowners insurance

  7. Vehicle insurance

  8. Flood insurance

  9. Life insurance

  10. Any insurance you might have

  11. Home mortgage paperwork

  12. Vehicle registrations and titles

  13. One copy of any monthly bills you pay, water, garbage, electric, gas, cable tv, credit cards, phones, etc…

  14. 401K, IRAs, etc…

  15. One copy of any bank statements

  16. Military paperwork if applicable

  17. Copy of last 5 years tax returns

  18. Lastly, get a picture of everything you own on a memory stick.

News Articles about #Dorian2019

DORIAN FURY GRAND BAHAMA...
MAX WINDS 150 MPH...
MOVEMENT WNW 1 MPH...

WATCH AND WAIT; NOW CAT 4...
Colossal damage...
MASSIVE FLOODING...
13,000+ houses affected...
'It's just shredded'...
SYSTEM CRAWLING...
THISCLOSE; NEXT TURN CRITICAL FOR USA...
COMPUTER MODELS... CONE... RADAR... SATELLITE... DETAILS...
STORM CHASER UPDATE...
DESANTIS: 'Perilously Close' To FL...
Millions ordered to evacuate... 

WATCH AND WAIT; NOW CATASTROPHIC CAT 5...
Dorian strikes with record fury...
200+ MPH GUSTS...
THISCLOSE; NEXT TURN CRITICAL FOR USA...
Mandatory evacuation ordered in Palm Beach, including Mar-a-Lago...
COMPUTER MODELS...
CONE...
SATELLITE...
DETAILS...
LIVE LOOK...
'Small deviation of track could bring intense core onto Florida coast'... 

Various shared content from #Dorian2019

SB I-95 EX 71 2:49 PM from r/HurricaneDorian

About this page

This page was created as a single resource for information and prepping for #Dorian2019

Description: The Global Intel Hub Hurricane Prep Page includes features such as Printable Hurricane Kit Prep List, Tools & Trackers such as Gas Buddy shortage app, Live Feed links, Government resources such as NHC update links, Evacuation Zone maps, and more.

URL:  www.globalintelhub.com/hurricane-prep

HurricanePrepPage