With senior German officials expecting discussions among leaders at the EU Summit to solely focused on a second round of sanctions against Russia (and warnings that they “must avoid a spiral of sanctions”), we thought it worth drilling down on just how mutually-dependent the two regions are. As Acting-Man’s Pater Tenebrarum notes [10], the following infographics suggest tit-for-tat sanctions could be a really big problem for Europe and why the EU’s leaders are probably quietly praying for the crisis to simply go away.
Trade between the EU and Russia (via RT)
[11]
Trade between Russia and Germany (via Der Spiegel) – Russia is Germany’s 11th largest trading partner
[12]
A list of German companies with big exposure to Russia (also via Der Spiegel)
[13]
International exposure to Russian debt (via Reuters)
[14]
Here are details on selected bank exposures (via Reuters):
SOCIETE GENERALE:
France’s second-biggest bank had exposure of 22.4 billion euros to Russia at the end of June, according to the European Banking Authority’s (EBA) data. That equated to 15.7 billion euros in risk-weighted assets.
SG Russia, which includes Rosbank and other insurance and financial operations, made operating income of 239 million euros last year, almost double 2012 despite a 41 percent jump in losses from bad debts. The bank said it had 13.5 billion euros of outstanding loans in Russia and deposits of 8.5 billion in the country at the end of 2013.
SocGen’s equity in its Russian business accounted for 7.7 percent of its group total, Morgan Stanley analysts estimated.
UNICREDIT:
Italy’s biggest bank by assets had exposure of 18.6 billion euros to Russia at the end of June, the EBA data showed.
The bank said its revenues from Russia were 372 million euros in the fourth quarter, up 80 percent from a year earlier.
UniCredit’s equity in its Russian business accounted for 2.7 percent of its group total, Morgan Stanley estimated.
RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL:
The Austrian lender said it is Russia’s 10th biggest bank, with a loan book of 10.2 billion euros, 2.5 million customers and 192 outlets. Its Russian assets represent 12 percent of the group total, and the Russian unit made 507 million euros in the first nine months of last year, most of the group’s total.
The EBA data showed Raiffeisen had a 13.2 billion euro exposure to Russia at the end of June.
Raiffeisen’s equity in its Russian business accounted for 15.6 percent of its group total, Morgan Stanley estimated.
OTP BANK:
The Hungarian bank’s exposure to Russia was 4.4 billion euros at the end of June, the EBA data showed.
BANK OF CYPRUS:
Its exposure to Russia was 1.6 billion euros at the end of June, the EBA data showed.
But apart from that – should be fine?! And this on the heels of Ukraine appearing to fold on any further action suggests Western powers have put themselves in a red-line-crossing MAD box…
