Last September (when bitcoin was trading at $230) we said that “As China Scrambles To Enforce Capital Controls, This Is Great News For Bitcoin” and that it is only a matter of time before Chinese buyers figure out that in a world in which the freeflow of capital out of China is increasingly more suppressed and where physical gold is actively being stored in China but is next to impossible to get it out of the country, it is only a matter of time before bitcoin explodes as China’s bubble berserk population scrambles to buy.
One month ago, we showed a chart according to which it was almost time for the bitcoin breakout, in “Is Bitcoin About To Soar?” At the time bitcoin was trading in the low $400s.
Then, just yesterday, something snapped, and as we reported “Bitcoin Surges To 2016 Highs On Rising Chinese Demand.”
It is unclear if that something is fears about an imminent round of Chinese devaluation following Friday’s dramatic move higher in the US Dollar, something we also hinted at on Friday afternoon…
… or simply because China’s $30 trillion in deposits had finally found the most efficient way to get their funds out of the country.
Whatever the reason, moments ago – as we expected – bitcoin finally broke out of its long-term range, and was trading at $520 moments ago on Coinbase…
… the highest price it has hit since the summer of 2014.
What is the reason for this dramatic move higher? It appears to be coming out of China, because moments ago Bitcoin traded in CNY on the Huobi exchange soared as high as 3820, or over $580, implying a massive local-demand driven arb to the US price of “only” $520.
It looks like the Chinese have finally awoken to bitcoin, just as we expected them to last September, when the price of bitcoin was over 50% lower.
With bitcoin now 100% higher than when we first said China would send it soaring,and 15% higher in the past two days, why do we remain in the bullish camp? Simple: China has $30trillion in deposits – which concerns about devaluations will make very “flighty” while the market cap of bitcoin is under $8 billion. If Chinese depositors have finally figured out to use bitcoin to get their funds out of the country, watch out BTC shorts.
