Tennessee Real Estate holding up in dumpy market

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LoveTNLife.com 11/22/2022 — With the Fed raising rates and a market that was too hot even for a game of hot potato, many assets have eased back in parallel with the sell of in global equities.  But real estate is a dynamic complex market.  Just as in equities, you have some assets holding up well better than others.  Hot markets like Las Vegas, Los Angeles, South Florida and others are obviously pulling back more than others.  Tennessee stands out as an interesting market, listings prices are holding steady.  The number of listings increased from February until July and then has held steady.  The sold to list ratio is dropping, and homes are staying on the market longer – so TN is not unaffected by the market.  However, compared to other markets, pricing is holding up strong, with only a slight downtick in the Listings Prices, according to Knoxville Area Association of REALTORS.

See the data:

 

 

Summary Statistics
Oct-22 Oct-21 % Chg 2022 YTD 2021 YTD % Chg
Absorption Rate 2.17 1.53 41.83 1.57 1.32 18.94
Average List Price $557,460 $454,126 22.75 $439,111 $361,428 21.49
Median List Price $403,000 $309,900 30.04 $339,000 $279,900 21.11
Average Sale Price $395,632 $352,168 12.34 $386,648 $328,360 17.75
Median Sale Price $315,000 $285,000 10.53 $320,000 $270,000 18.52
Average ADOM 31 21 47.62 22 25 -12.00
Median ADOM 14 0 N/A 5 5 0.00

Listings

Sold Listings
This Month Year to Date
2022 2021 % Chg 2022 2021 % Chg
0-99,999 59 89 -33.7 693 1003 -30.9
100,000-149,999 86 158 -45.6 968 1618 -40.2
150,000-199,999 158 264 -40.2 1844 2984 -38.2
200,000-249,999 207 288 -28.1 2321 3067 -24.3
250,000-299,999 254 336 -24.4 2576 2785 -7.5
300,000-349,999 186 228 -18.4 2262 2082 8.6
350,000-399,999 159 183 -13.1 1813 1657 9.4
400,000-449,999 115 131 -12.2 1291 1106 16.7
450,000-499,999 81 93 -12.9 993 821 21.0
500,000-549,999 53 78 -32.1 730 565 29.2
550,000-599,999 52 54 -3.7 697 421 65.6
600,000-649,999 41 40 2.5 496 352 40.9
650,000-699,999 50 40 25.0 437 258 69.4
700,000-749,999 22 34 -35.3 284 177 60.5
750,000-799,999 24 15 60.0 249 150 66.0
800,000-849,999 19 16 18.8 168 116 44.8
850,000-899,999 19 15 26.7 151 101 49.5
900,000-949,999 10 10 0.0 114 76 50.0
950,000-999,999 4 10 -60.0 101 79 27.8
1,000,000-1,099,999 10 11 -9.1 96 68 41.2
1,100,000-1,199,999 10 9 11.1 120 64 87.5
1,200,000-1,299,999 8 11 -27.3 95 69 37.7
1,300,000-1,399,999 8 4 100.0 58 47 23.4
1,400,000-1,499,999 5 4 25.0 45 35 28.6
1,500,000-1,599,999 7 2 250.0 39 24 62.5
1,600,000-1,699,999 1 2 -50.0 21 17 23.5
1,700,000-1,799,999 2 3 -33.3 19 19 0.0
1,800,000-1,899,999 1 1 0.0 16 8 100.0
1,900,000-1,999,999 2 0 N/A 19 8 137.5
2,000,000-2,249,999 2 1 100.0 27 19 42.1
2,250,000-2,499,999 2 2 0.0 11 11 0.0
2,500,000-2,749,999 0 0 0.0 5 8 -37.5
2,750,000-2,999,999 0 0 0.0 6 6 0.0
3,000,000-3,249,999 1 1 0.0 4 3 33.3
3,250,000-3,499,999 0 0 0.0 2 1 100.0
3,500,000-3,749,999 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
3,750,000-3,999,999 1 0 N/A 3 1 200.0
4,000,000-4,249,999 0 0 0.0 1 0 N/A
4,250,000-4,499,999 0 0 0.0 1 0 N/A
4,500,000-4,749,999 0 0 0.0 1 1 0.0
4,750,000-4,999,999 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0
5,000,000+ 1 1 0.0 4 4 0.0
Totals 1660 2134 -22.2 18781 19831 -5.3
Pending Listings
This Month Year to Date
2022 2021 % Chg 2022 2021 % Chg
0-99,999 47 71 -33.8 682 941 -27.5
100,000-149,999 79 131 -39.7 942 1721 -45.3
150,000-199,999 171 295 -42.0 1988 3265 -39.1
200,000-249,999 200 315 -36.5 2322 3050 -23.9
250,000-299,999 236 320 -26.2 2747 3083 -10.9
300,000-349,999 188 217 -13.4 2162 2031 6.5
350,000-399,999 148 193 -23.3 1928 1767 9.1
400,000-449,999 77 130 -40.8 1098 1067 2.9
450,000-499,999 74 138 -46.4 1022 1007 1.5
500,000-549,999 61 60 1.7 680 563 20.8
550,000-599,999 51 83 -38.6 730 534 36.7
600,000-649,999 38 37 2.7 420 290 44.8
650,000-699,999 38 50 -24.0 484 338 43.2
700,000-749,999 18 20 -10.0 251 188 33.5
750,000-799,999 20 21 -4.8 271 188 44.1
800,000-849,999 11 15 -26.7 143 109 31.2
850,000-899,999 17 20 -15.0 184 150 22.7
900,000-949,999 10 5 100.0 75 58 29.3
950,000-999,999 12 16 -25.0 131 106 23.6
1,000,000-1,099,999 7 2 250.0 57 52 9.6
1,100,000-1,199,999 11 10 10.0 120 90 33.3
1,200,000-1,299,999 13 5 160.0 116 86 34.9
1,300,000-1,399,999 10 3 233.3 72 42 71.4
1,400,000-1,499,999 4 4 0.0 51 41 24.4
1,500,000-1,599,999 2 2 0.0 38 38 0.0
1,600,000-1,699,999 4 5 -20.0 27 18 50.0
1,700,000-1,799,999 0 2 -100.0 24 21 14.3
1,800,000-1,899,999 0 1 -100.0 19 6 216.7
1,900,000-1,999,999 3 2 50.0 17 16 6.3
2,000,000-2,249,999 1 1 0.0 25 11 127.3
2,250,000-2,499,999 1 2 -50.0 19 24 -20.8
2,500,000-2,749,999 0 0 0.0 11 7 57.1
2,750,000-2,999,999 3 0 N/A 12 13 -7.7
3,000,000-3,249,999 0 0 0.0 3 1 200.0
3,250,000-3,499,999 0 1 -100.0 4 4 0.0
3,500,000-3,749,999 1 0 N/A 1 1 0.0
3,750,000-3,999,999 1 0 N/A 4 0 N/A
4,000,000-4,249,999 1 0 N/A 2 0 N/A
4,250,000-4,499,999 0 0 0.0 0 1 -100.0
4,500,000-4,749,999 0 0 0.0 1 1 0.0
4,750,000-4,999,999 0 0 0.0 1 1 0.0
5,000,000+ 2 0 N/A 6 4 50.0
Totals 1560 2177 -28.3 18890 20934 -9.8
Active Listings
This Month Year to Date
2022 2021 % Chg 2022 2021 % Chg
0-99,999 119 195 -39.0 937 1322 -29.1
100,000-149,999 163 245 -33.5 1266 2138 -40.8
150,000-199,999 288 368 -21.7 2505 3869 -35.3
200,000-249,999 321 312 2.9 2916 3546 -17.8
250,000-299,999 468 349 34.1 3490 3621 -3.6
300,000-349,999 361 238 51.7 2759 2399 15.0
350,000-399,999 376 223 68.6 2558 2138 19.6
400,000-449,999 241 137 75.9 1514 1303 16.2
450,000-499,999 279 146 91.1 1503 1256 19.7
500,000-549,999 169 97 74.2 975 730 33.6
550,000-599,999 219 122 79.5 1078 723 49.1
600,000-649,999 147 49 200.0 634 379 67.3
650,000-699,999 182 96 89.6 793 469 69.1
700,000-749,999 94 30 213.3 412 253 62.8
750,000-799,999 134 50 168.0 486 275 76.7
800,000-849,999 49 34 44.1 221 163 35.6
850,000-899,999 91 35 160.0 343 221 55.2
900,000-949,999 43 18 138.9 150 86 74.4
950,000-999,999 76 39 94.9 251 184 36.4
1,000,000-1,099,999 30 15 100.0 108 79 36.7
1,100,000-1,199,999 60 27 122.2 216 134 61.2
1,200,000-1,299,999 65 32 103.1 234 141 66.0
1,300,000-1,399,999 44 18 144.4 144 68 111.8
1,400,000-1,499,999 40 20 100.0 126 69 82.6
1,500,000-1,599,999 24 14 71.4 87 62 40.3
1,600,000-1,699,999 19 14 35.7 69 34 102.9
1,700,000-1,799,999 16 6 166.7 48 36 33.3
1,800,000-1,899,999 15 6 150.0 44 15 193.3
1,900,000-1,999,999 15 6 150.0 45 28 60.7
2,000,000-2,249,999 10 7 42.9 49 20 145.0
2,250,000-2,499,999 12 15 -20.0 48 44 9.1
2,500,000-2,749,999 10 3 233.3 28 13 115.4
2,750,000-2,999,999 14 10 40.0 36 27 33.3
3,000,000-3,249,999 1 1 0.0 5 5 0.0
3,250,000-3,499,999 3 2 50.0 11 7 57.1
3,500,000-3,749,999 4 1 300.0 6 2 200.0
3,750,000-3,999,999 4 2 100.0 10 3 233.3
4,000,000-4,249,999 3 0 N/A 4 0 N/A
4,250,000-4,499,999 4 0 N/A 4 2 100.0
4,500,000-4,749,999 0 2 -100.0 3 3 0.0
4,750,000-4,999,999 1 2 -50.0 3 5 -40.0
5,000,000+ 13 8 62.5 25 16 56.3
Totals 4227 2994 41.2 26144 25888 1.0
New Listings
This Month Year to Date
2022 2021 % Chg 2022 2021 % Chg
0-99,999 55 92 -40.2 760 1069 -28.9
100,000-149,999 87 137 -36.5 1110 1870 -40.6
150,000-199,999 195 276 -29.3 2280 3508 -35.0
200,000-249,999 236 292 -19.2 2712 3276 -17.2
250,000-299,999 263 307 -14.3 3260 3336 -2.3
300,000-349,999 231 205 12.7 2581 2200 17.3
350,000-399,999 209 182 14.8 2411 1927 25.1
400,000-449,999 114 127 -10.2 1407 1191 18.1
450,000-499,999 122 131 -6.9 1388 1137 22.1
500,000-549,999 83 69 20.3 893 648 37.8
550,000-599,999 61 84 -27.4 1001 639 56.7
600,000-649,999 41 43 -4.7 590 338 74.6
650,000-699,999 48 44 9.1 724 423 71.2
700,000-749,999 29 19 52.6 385 223 72.6
750,000-799,999 37 29 27.6 454 246 84.6
800,000-849,999 14 10 40.0 206 141 46.1
850,000-899,999 31 17 82.4 312 192 62.5
900,000-949,999 8 4 100.0 135 73 84.9
950,000-999,999 18 29 -37.9 225 157 43.3
1,000,000-1,099,999 7 5 40.0 98 64 53.1
1,100,000-1,199,999 13 12 8.3 195 110 77.3
1,200,000-1,299,999 19 10 90.0 204 117 74.4
1,300,000-1,399,999 11 2 450.0 124 55 125.5
1,400,000-1,499,999 8 4 100.0 116 56 107.1
1,500,000-1,599,999 6 4 50.0 70 45 55.6
1,600,000-1,699,999 4 2 100.0 62 29 113.8
1,700,000-1,799,999 0 3 -100.0 43 31 38.7
1,800,000-1,899,999 2 4 -50.0 40 14 185.7
1,900,000-1,999,999 5 2 150.0 38 17 123.5
2,000,000-2,249,999 5 2 150.0 41 15 173.3
2,250,000-2,499,999 4 1 300.0 37 32 15.6
2,500,000-2,749,999 0 0 0.0 26 7 271.4
2,750,000-2,999,999 3 2 50.0 26 24 8.3
3,000,000-3,249,999 1 0 N/A 4 3 33.3
3,250,000-3,499,999 0 0 0.0 7 5 40.0
3,500,000-3,749,999 2 0 N/A 6 1 500.0
3,750,000-3,999,999 1 0 N/A 7 2 250.0
4,000,000-4,249,999 0 0 0.0 4 0 N/A
4,250,000-4,499,999 0 0 0.0 4 1 300.0
4,500,000-4,749,999 0 1 -100.0 2 2 0.0
4,750,000-4,999,999 1 0 N/A 1 2 -50.0
5,000,000+ 1 2 -50.0 15 11 36.4
Totals 1975 2153 -8.3 24004 23237 3.3

 

Information is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. © 2022 Knoxville Area Association of REALTORS and FBS. Prepared by LoveTNLife on Tuesday, November 22, 2022 9:57 AM.

Clearly, every market is different.  Zero Hedge reported as early as August 2022 that prices in Boise Idaho had dropped:

 

 “They priced too high because their neighbor’s home sold for an exorbitant price a few months ago, and expected to receive multiple offers the first weekend because they heard stories about that happening.” 

As the winds in the pandemic boomtown shifted this summer, she advised sellers to “price their home correctly” to market conditions and understand things are slowing. 

The common denominator in all of these cities is that an influx of demand during the early days of the pandemic sent home prices quite literally ‘through the roof’ because city-dwellers figured out they could remote work to low-cost areas. 

Now the boom is ending in the frothiest of markets because the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hikes in years to quell the highest inflation in four decades has sent mortgage rates north of 5% in such a short period, sparking what we’ve been warning about for months of an emerging affordability crisis. 

The good thing about real estate, you can’t manufacture it.  Regardless of how much money the Fed prints, land is land.  Fed policy affects interest rates which impacts mortgages so real estate is no simple hedge, but it is a physical asset that has limited supply.

Whatever the factors, whether it’s demographics, the pandemic driving people to red states (so called “Red Shift”) or other factors – there clearly are some states still seeing net positive inflows (other states include Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and South Carolina).

Checkout Crediblock.com Second Sight markets analysis service.

For more insights on Real Estate and Tennessee, checkout Love TN Life. 

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