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Major Chinese Banks Stop Lending

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd
Bank of China Ltd

Bank of China Ltd
Loans to businesses and individuals will resume according to the Bank of China on July 15th. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has stated that it is normal for them to put limits on the amount of lending that they do and those limits are set each month. Cases of where the bank has to interrupt their lending have already occurred. However, it would appear that the amount of lending was reduced in comparison with previous months by the banks head office for June. Apparently, the credit line will be reopened in July, but it will be only for a few days as they do not have enough deposits. On June 23rd, the Industrial and Commercial Bank’s customers had trouble withdrawing cash from cash machines and they also did not see bank transfers going through on their accounts on time. The Bank of China suffered the same setbacks on June 24th. Today they have cut loans heightening worry both inside and outside of China as to the stability of the banks. Statements were issued by the banks giving upgrades in IT services as the reason. Rather strange, however, that both banks updated their systems at the same time and suffered the same glitch in the system.
There are two other banks that have interrupted their mortgage loans also: CITIC Bank and Huxua Bank.
Analysts have always stated that the larger banks have stopped lending to smaller banks as they are worried about liquidity and there are deposit issues, but they seem to believe that the large banks will not stop lending to individuals and businesses. Only smaller banks will suffer from the credit crunch taking place in China right now. But, the banks that have halted lending today are not in line with that thinking. The Bank of China, which has existed since 1905, is the 2nd largest lender in China at the present time. It is the 5th largest bank in the world in terms of market capitalization. It employs nearly three hundred thousand people and has total assets to the value of CN¥ 11.829 trillion. That doesn’t sound very much like a small bank. It also has branches in 27 countries around the world. The knock-on effect in those countries will surely be felt too. Investors are not worried for the moment as share value rose today by 3.3%. But, will that continue?
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is also one of China’s big four banks (Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Construction Bank). It is the largest bank in the world with regard to profit and market capitalization and was listed by Forbes Global 2000 in number one position as the world’s largest public company. It employs four hundred thousand people. In 2010 net lending of the bank stood at 70 billion Yuan, meaning that it lent than any other bank in China. 20% of its lending goes to manufacturing industry and personal loans are over 15% of its business also. It was the world’s largest Initial Public Offering at US$21.9 billion when it was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange simultaneously in 2006. However, the news doesn’t seem to worry investors for the moment as share value rose by 6.82% today to 4, 700HKD (up 0.3 points).
This is all cause for major concern however. It will be an issue in the coming days, in particular in light of the People’s Bank of China’s recent statements that there was ‘reasonable’ liquidity statement that was issued a couple of days ago. The ‘reasonable’ turned into ‘ample’. Share value is still rising for the moment for both banks, but the Bank of China is below what it was just a few days ago as can be seen in the chart.
Bank of China Ltd

Bank of China Ltd
The Bank of China had already tightened lending in early 2010 in a bid to increase deposits and liquidity. But today the reining in of loans is in a different set of circumstances. The entire banking sector in China is currently strapped for cash and not just one bank.
How much the People’s Bank of China will be able to ward of accusations that there is indeed a big liquidity problem in China today is far from certain.
So, the options that are open to businesses and individuals? Unless the People’s Bank of China comes up with some cash to unfreeze the situation and double-quick, the Chinese (but, unfortunately, not only the Chinese) had better start popping down to the pawnbrokers and speaking to Uncle. Otherwise it looks as if they are in for a rough time. If money dries up in those two banks and continues, then small and medium sized businesses are likely to suffer and there will be a bank-run on. Don’t envy them at all for that. We could always send Ben Bernanke, couldn’t we? He will sort the problem out in true Federal-Reserve fashion. Uncle Ben would be a better option than the pawnbrokers maybe for some!  He may be looking for a short stopover in Shanghai when his stint at the Federal Reserve is up in 2014.
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“Time Is Running Out Fast” For Italy

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
Everyone knows Europe is insolvent; the only question is “when” will Europe be forced to finally admit this truism. The long overdue house of cards may start toppling in as little as 6 months, as The Telegraph reports,Mediobanca’s ‘index of solvency risk’ suggests “time is running out fast” for Italy. With the breakdown in Eurozone talks on a banking union and the Fed’s shift in policy, Europe “has become a dangerous place,” warns RBS. Unless Italy can count on low borrowing costs and a broad recovery, it will “inevitably end up in an EU bailout.” The current situation is as bad as when the country was blown out of the ERM in 1992 as “the Italian macro situation has not improved…rather the contrary; with 160 large corporates in Italy now in special crisis administration.” If the ECB doesn’t act, one analyst warns (pleads) it could see all the gains of the past nine months vanish in two weeks. Mediobanca said the trigger for a blow-up in Italy could be a bail-out crisis for Slovenia or an ugly turn of events in Argentina, which has close links to Italian business. “Argentina in particular worries us, as a new default seems likely.”
“Time is running out fast,” said Mediobanca’s top analyst, Antonio Guglielmi, in a confidential client note. “The Italian macro situation has not improved over the last quarter, rather the contrary. Some 160 large corporates in Italy are now in special crisis administration.”
The report warned that Italy will “inevitably end up in an EU bail-out request” over the next six months, unless it can count on low borrowing costs and a broader recovery.
Emphasising the gravity of the situation, it compared the crisis with when the country was blown out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992 despite drastic austerity measures.
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“The European Central Bank needs to take very aggressive steps to offset this,” said Marchel Alexandrovich from Jefferies Fixed Income. “We have a sell-off across the board. If the ECB doesn’t act, it could see all the gains of the past nine months vanish in two weeks, taking the eurozone back to square one.”
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“We have clear signs in global finance of a generalised meltdown in assets right now.”
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Mediobanca said the trigger for a blow-up in Italy could be a bail-out crisis for Slovenia or an ugly turn of events in Argentina, which has close links to Italian business. “Argentina in particular worries us, as a new default seems likely.”
Mr Guglielmi said Italy’s industrial output has slumped 25pc from its peak in the past decade, while disposable income has dropped 9pc and house sales have dropped to 1985 levels.
The 1992 crisis was defused by a large devaluation, allowing Italy to restore trade competitiveness at a stroke. Mediobanca said: “The euro straitjacket is clearly not providing a similar currency flexibility today. With the lira devaluation Italy managed to inflate debt away, which it cannot do today. It could take more than 10 years to revert to pre-crisis output levels. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-25/time-running-out-fast-italy

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Liquidation – Stocks, Bonds, Commodities Collapse

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
As we warned earlier in the week, Greece is notably missing its Troika goals and the issue just became a lot more critical. AsThe FT reports, the IMF is preparing to suspend aid payments to Greece over what it claims is a EUR 3-4 billion shortfall that has opened up. Between healthcare budget shortfalls, central banks refusing to roll-over Greek bonds, and amid signs that even the scaled-back privatization plans that Athens had agreed to being behind schedule, the IMF –following its own admissions of mistakes in the Greek bailout, has warned EU officials the shortfall will require it to stop aid payments by the end of July. The equity market is already reacting (as is EURJPY – EUR weakness against the big carry pair) to this re-awakening of EU event risk (and the awkward timing with Merkel’s election so close) – with the Fed’s comfort blanket somewhat removed.
Via The FT,
The International Monetary Fund is preparing to suspend aid payments to Greece by the end of next month unless eurozone leaders plug a €3bn-€4bn shortfall that has opened up in Greece’s €172bn rescue programme, according to officials involved in management of the bailout.
The gap emerged after eurozone central banks refused to roll over Greek bonds they hold, and comes amid signs that even the scaled-back privatisation plan Athens agreed to last year is falling behind schedule.
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The shortfall will force eurozone finance ministers to discuss “alternate sources” of funding
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But the timing is particularly awkward as Germany is holding parliamentary elections on September 22. In the run-up to polling day Chancellor Angela Merkel will be loath to submit any further aid request to the Bundestag where it would likely be highly controversial.
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the IMF has warned EU officials the gap will require it to stop aid payments at the end of July, said a person involved in the discussions.
Under its rules, governments must have at least 12 months of financing in place to receive IMF disbursements under a bailout programme. This latest shortfall of €3bn-€4bn means that Greece’s financing needs are only covered up to the end of July 2014.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-20/stocks-plunge-imf-tells-greece-plug-holes-or-it-pulls-plug

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What The Recent Surge In Rates Means For Your Home Purchasing Power

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
Contrary to what one may have read in the financial tabloids, a houseing market does not recover thanks to Fed-subsidzed REO-to-Rent loans used by the biggest private equity firms to buy up distressed property on the margin, by foreign oligrachs buying Manhattan triplexes sight unseen just to park ‘tax-evaded’ cash courtesy of the NAR’s anti money-launderingexemption, and by foreclosure stuffing from the big banks desperate to subsidze the market higher before the sell into it. The recovery comes from the average consumer, who has disposable income and savings (in a hypothetical scenario of course) and who can buy houses based on a given monthly budget – a budget which must provide a better deal to own than to rent.
The problem with such a budget is that first and foremost its purchasing power is dependent on interest rates, and in an economy in which leverage is everything, rising rates mean a collapse in purchasing power. Here is a glimpse of what has happened to the mortgage rates in the past month alone: from Bloomberg’s Jody Shenn:
Wells Fargo & Co., the largest U.S. mortgage lender, is offering 30-year fixed-rate loans at 4.5 percent, according to its website, up from 4.13 percent on June 18 and 3.88 percent on May 22, when comments by Bernanke to lawmakers and the release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting caused bonds to plummet. Freddie Mac’s survey, which is lagging behind the bond slump because it reflects originator responses through yesterday, showed average rates falling to 3.93 percent this week.
So in one month, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage has jumped by over 60 basis points. What does this mean for net purchasing power? Well, as the chart below shows, assuming a $2000/month budget to be spent on amortizing a mortgage (or otherwise spent for rent), it means that suddenly instead of being able to afford a $425K house, the average consumer can buy a $395K house.
This means that, all else equal, housing just sustained a 7% drop in the average equlibrium price based on what buyers can afford.
But assuming the current selloff in rates continues, things are going to get much worse: we may be seeing 5%, 5.5% even 6% and higher mortgages in the immediate future.
It also means that a buyer who could previously afford a $506K house with a $2,000 monthly budget at an interest rate of 2.5% will be able to afford only $316K if and when the average 30 Year fixed hits 6.5%: a 40% drop in affordability based on just a 4% increase in interest rates!
And this is bullish for the economy?
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Imminent US real estate market crash

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis

Imminent US real estate market crash

  1. Lumber is near term low, which usually tracks with homebuilders.  Very simple to understand, lumber is still primary material to build houses.  Housing recovery built on faith
  2. Institutional players entered market such as BlackRock and JPMorgan (and many others) now exiting.  Smart money getting out of stocks and real estate These new investor buyers have been artificially inflating the market in many areas.
  3. Fed policy – Fed will stop buying mortgage securities  This will drive the cost of financing through the roof.
  4. Demographic shift, baby boomers retiring and new generation not buying more houses.
  5. Lack of foreign support – Due to a global tax witch hunt, and a European banking crisis, foreigners who previously supported US market will support to lesser extent
  6. Job crisis – while unemployment figures officially claim we have a job recovery, companies are laying off workers in record amounts.  Unemployed people don’t buy houses.  Workers who are laid off may have to sell their house.
  7. Bond market collapse – For those retirees who keep their money in bonds, with the pending bond market crash they will have less money to pay for their houses.

http://ih.advfn.com/daily/eliteforextraining/1710/imminent-us-real-estate-market-crash

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Fed much more upbeat about outlook

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled greater optimism about the economic outlook, forecasting that the unemployment rate could fall to 6.5% by 2014, one year sooner than the central bank had previously estimated.
In its policy statement, the Fed said downside risks to the outlook had diminished and that the labor market had shown further improvement.
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Bankers: Do not Pass GO, Do Not Collect millions and Go Directly to Jail!

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
A new banking report is published today in the UK.
There are jobs that nobody wants to do really, aren’t there? As your kids are growing up, you hope they don’t ask you one day to come and sit down as they have something serious to talk to you about. Dread! You know what’s coming: “Hey, mom, dad, I’m…I’m going to be a…a banker!”. Then, your whole life falls apart. It’s like being on a par with gutting social-unacceptable jobs like debt-collector and bailiff, isn’t it? The money might be there, but the morals aren’t?
Well, George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK, has all eyes focused on him with the idea of the century, it seems. A banking commission headed by Conservative MP, Andrew Tyrie has made 80 recommendations to make the banking sector the place you want your kids to work in when they grow up. Morals will change and the banking will be a good job to have!
George Osborne is giving the Mansion-House (residence of the Lord Mayor of London) speech to the city tonight, an annual speech in which the Chancellor of the Exchequer traditionally gives his impression of the state of the British economy. It seems rather unlikely that he will announce some of the recommendations to the bankers that will be seated at the tables in front of him, however. Not unless he wants them to choke on the spicy ingredients that he have been concocted. These include making bankers wait up to ten years to receive bonuses and going to prison. Heard it all before? Thought it? Dreamt of it? The Report did it.
George Osborne, Mansion House Speech

George Osborne, Mansion House Speech
The report is a hefty two-volume reader’s digest of what to do and what not to do in the banking system, entitled “Changing Banking for Good”. Snazzy little tittle that can be read in two different ways as well. Well done Mr. Tyrie. Only a few pages into the report it states that past regulations and supervisory controls had:
  • “little realistic prospect of effective enforcement action, even in many of the most flagrant cases of failure”.
It goes on to state that:
  • “remuneration has incentivised misconduct and excessive risk-taking, reinforcing a culture where poor standards were often considered normal”.
To take out the excessive risk-taking from the lives of bankers in the workplace, the report puts forward the suggestion not only that the bankers should receive the bonuses after a period that could last up to ten years (now that’s time to forget what you have actually done to get the bonus, isn’t it?) but also that the remuneration be in bail-bonds. It also suggests that for wider cases of misconduct remuneration should be cancelled and that if the taxpayer has to foot the bill, then they should definitely not be made. We know from a recent report from the Chartered Institute of Personal Development also that the majority of bankers are in agreement. They think that they are paid excessive amounts and sometimes they don’t know why they get all the money they do. So, if we all agree, let’s cut the bonuses and improve regulation. What are we waiting for?
Bankers: Bonuses

Bankers: Bonuses
The report states that banks have failed the UK in ‘many respects’. £133 billion have had to be injected in bail-outs, amounting to £2, 000 per every person in the UK today. But, it seems that it is also the shareholders that have been let down too. They have had ‘poor long-term returns’.
Excessive risks that were taken in the period leading up to the financial crisis were not down to miscalculation of mathematical equations that boiled down to the bankers getting their sums wrong, but to the fact that the banks were and still are too big to fail. They are able to take greater risks because they are too complex and too enormous. We can’t let them fail and that they know only too well. It’s all very well saying ‘yes, let them fail and then they will see’. But, what will the average person be eating then? Bread and water will be more than just dietary supplements, they will become the staples. Banks today have access to cheaper credit. Their success is determined not so much by the careful and planned placing of financial equity, but the guarantee that lies steadfastly behind them.
The report clearly states that bankers should not flippantly refuse to accept that public anger at high salaries is purely jealousy-driven or petty ignorance. “Rewards have been paid for failure”. Bonuses may have fallen, although the report points out that this has been off-set by fixed-pay rises.
It has also been suggested that there needs to be greater equality in terms of employing women. Women take fewer risks traditionally on the trading floor and so the report asks for employment policy to be changed in banks.
Senior bankers have also come in for a belting from the report, accused of wearing blindfolds as to their responsibility. They are accused of being so far removed from the misconduct that they have ended up being admonished of all responsibility. The report suggests that a prison sentence would certainly make senior officials think about what is being done. The report states that it would “give pause for thought to the senior officers of UK banks”. However, to what extent would senior officials of any bank really consider their potential criminal liability? It also raises the question as to what extent it would be possible to actually see a conviction and criminal liability recognized in a court of law?  Hard to prove.
The reports can be found here.  Enjoy! If anything actually gets done. Previous suggestions were already ignored by the British government with regard to changes in the banking sector and the report states that it is “disappointed” that this has happened. Aren’t we all?
However, clearly the report states quite a few home truths; things that the average citizen has been feeling and voicing for many a year now. But, until now that has been largely left just as words from angry and jealous members of the public that also want to strike it rich and get paid for doing wrong. Now though, how long will the suggestions that have been made be ignored and how long will the Chancellor of the Exchequer be able to turn a deaf ear to what is being said? The report comes at a timely moment; Mr. Osborne looks like he may still have time to rectify his speech for tonight’s dinner!
The report states “An important lesson of history is that bankers, regulators and politicians alike repeatedly fail to learn the lessons of history”. This time it is (apparently) different. Bankers and everyone else have learned the lessons. Have they?

What do you think? Are bankers going to repeat history or have they learned from their mistakes?

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