Silicon smackdown: Will OpenAI ever be matched?
OpenAI has become the AI industry’s dominant force, with 800M users and a $300B valuation—but the race is far from over. As Gavin Baker notes, an Apple-Grok partnership could be the strategic counter that gives Elon Musk’s xAI the reach it needs to seriously compete.
>800 million users
ChatGPT hit 500mn weekly active users in March, and consumer subscriptions are ~75% of revenue. Today, ChatGPT has over 800 million users and is the second fastest growing digital app in history.
Source: JPM
Next step 2 billion
OpenAI expects 2bn WAUs by 2030.
Source: JPM
3x Magnificent valuation
The company’s latest valuation equates to a multiple of ~27x its estimated 2025 revenue (Magnificent 7 average is ~9x EV/NTM consensus revenue) and points to fervent investor belief in the potential of the company to deliver on Altman’s vision to “move fast and break things”.
Source: JPM
70% of downloads
OpenAI’s first mover advantage remains evident in app download data, which suggests the company still represents more than 70% of total AI app downloads globally in markets that it competes in (note, OpenAI is not available in China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea).
Source: JPM
Engulfing all the oxygen…
~18% of all private AI/ML capital invested has gone to OpenAI.
Source: PicthBook
Huge TAM
Total addressable market ~$700bn+ by 2030.
Source: JPM
The revenue trajectory
OpenAI could reach ~$174bn revenue by 2030.
Source: Bloomberg
Never mind the competition
ChatGPT DAU growth strong despite recent Google I/O and Claude 4 releases.
Source: Sensor Tower
OpenAI’s market share
Nice plateau closer to 78% of all unique viewers.
Source: SimilarWeb
Chatbot domination too
Nearly 50% of AI Chatbot DAUs estimated to be on ChatGPT.
Source: Google Antitrust Case Presentation
Margin monster
Media reports (The Information) state that OpenAI expects gross profit margins to reach ~70% by 2029, up from ~40% today.
Source: The Information
Apple partnering with xAI’s Grok could be transformative
On the latest All-In Podcast, Gavin Baker emphasized if Apple integrates Grok into its ecosystem — on iPhones, Siri, or through developer platforms — it could instantly gain mainstream adoption and challenge current AI leaders. No formal deal has been confirmed, but the potential for a strategic Apple‑xAI partnership is clear.
“On the internet, distribution wins championships.”
If Apple integrates xAI’s Grok‑4, that could be the turbocharge Grok needs to compete. It’s not just about the model — it’s about reach.
Natural partners
“And so from an industrial logic perspective, something that I think makes a lot of sense, particularly since OpenAI bought Jony Ive’s hardware startup, which will place them into competition with Apple at some point, is xAI and Apple are natural partners.”
“There’s been a lot of news about Apple thinking about buying Perplexity or Mistral, but that’s just a Band-Aid. Those companies don’t get Apple what they need.”
“And I think there is solid industrial logic for a partnership. You could have Apple Grok, Safe Grok, whatever you want to call it so that Apple feels comfortable.”
“And that probably also helps Grok in the enterprise. And then it also helps both Apple and Google with this DOJ trial.”
“And so I think, in this incredibly high level chess match that is being played between the leading labs, that partnership makes a lot of sense for both companies.”. (Gavin Baker)
“Never bet against Elon Musk”
This short but impactful line has been widely cited, especially among tech and investor circles. Thiel reportedly said this in various contexts, often in reference to Musk’s ability to defy odds and deliver on audacious goals.