Saxo Bank does an annual predictions report before the new year, anticipating wildcard events that might impact the markets. See the full report here:
According to Saxo, there’s a chance that Germany falls into recession, while France’s CAC 40 index could plunge 40pc from this year’s peak.
But the predictions are not confined to Europe. Other events that could rattle investors include:
• Traders piling into the yen as the global recovery falters, driving the “desperate” Bank of Japan to delete all government debt as it tries a “simple but untested accountancy trick”
• US politicians performing “Act II [of] how to disrupt the economy”, with Congress squabbling leading to deflation in the world’s biggest economy
• A plunge in the oil price to $80 a barrel, as unconventional production methods cause an oversupply, and hedge funds start to short crude
• Investors realising the 700pc premium that tech stocks Amazon, Netflix, Twitter, Pandora Media and Yelp trade at is an unsustainable bubble
In April Lars Christensen, the head of Saxo Bank, warned that there would be “more wealth confiscation, without a doubt” as European politicians adopted the “easy option” of taking money from the rich rather than raising taxes and cutting spending to deal with the continent’s debt problems.
