Category: Markets

Markets

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Russia Spends Up to $1.75 Billion in Two Days to Buoy Ruble

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
Russia’s central bank spent as much as $1.75 billion to prop up the ruble over the last two trading days, its biggest market intervention since President Vladimir Putin’s incursion into Ukraine in March.
Russia’s central bank spent the equivalent of $980 million to shore up the ruble on Oct. 3, the latest data on the authority’s website showed today. The bank also said it shifted the upper boundary of the currency’s trading band by 10 kopeks yesterday, a move that may have involved spending between $420 million and $769 million that day. The exchange rate weakened 0.3 percent to 44.6234 versus the basket by 5:12 p.m. in Moscow, set for a record low for the fourth time this month.
Putin is suffering the consequences for shaking up the post-Cold War order in eastern Europe as the U.S. and European Union impose sanctions on his economy and investors pull money out of the country. Demand for dollars and euros is growing among Russian companies locked out of western debt markets as they contend with $54.7 billion of debt repayments in the next three months, according to central bank data.
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Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: The Fed’s “Stealth Bailout” Of Foreign Banks Goes Mainstream

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Back in June 2011, Zero Hedge first posted: “Exclusive: The Fed’s $600 Billion Stealth Bailout Of Foreign Banks Continues At The Expense Of The Domestic Economy, Or Explaining Where All The QE2 Money Went“ which we followed up on various occasions, most notably with “How The Fed’s Latest QE Is Just Another European Bailout” and […]

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Uncle Sam’s $8 Trillion Annual Debt Churn: Why Washington Is Pertrified Of Honest Interest Rates

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By Michael Snyder I know that headline sounds completely outrageous.  But it is actually true.  The U.S. government is borrowing about 8 trillion dollars a year, and you are about to see the hard numbers that prove this.  When discussing the national debt, most people tend to only focus on the amount that it increases […]

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US Regulators Fear “Runs” From PIMCO’s Systemic Risk As Outflows Soar To 12.5% Of Assets

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Things are rapidly shifting from bad to worse for PIMCO. In a triple whammy this morning, Bloomberg reports the Total Return Fund ETF (managed previously by Bill Gross) has suffered $446 million outflows (or over 12.5% of assets) so far; Morningstar downgrades the fund from ‘gold’ to ‘bronze’ citing “uncertainty regarding outflows and the reshuffling […]

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Russian Central Bank rejects capital controls as ruble hits lowest level since 1998

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
The ruble slid to a new record low of 39.71 against the dollar Tuesday. The Russian Central Bank has been quick to quash fears it would re-introduce capital controls to limit the amount of foreign currency purchases, or even moved outside the country.
“Bank of Russia is not considering the introduction of any restrictions on cross-border capital flows as it was reported in some publications in the mass-media,” the bank said in a statement on Tuesday evening.
The bank’s statement followed a report by Bloomberg News citing anonymous officials that the bank is considering imposing capital controls, as the ruble hit new historic lows.
The Central Bank said it would intervene once the euro-dollar currency basket against the ruble reached a level of 44.4, which it reached on Tuesday before quickly retreating.
Capital controls are a monetary tool by Russia’s key lender to restrict money flowing overseas, which in Russia is projected to reach $100 billion in 2014, nearly on par with the $120 billion that fled in 2008 when the financial crisis hit. In 2007 Russia had a positive net capital inflow.
Andrey Kostin, Chairman and CEO of VTB, doesn’t believe that Russia will impose capital controls just yet, talking to CNBC at VTB’s annual investment forum ‘Russia Calling!’.
“The basic issue now is whether the Russian leadership, under the circumstances, will switch to the model of a mobilization economy, and introduce the old mechanism of currency control, or they will stay on the principle of their open market economy. I think that is the big question that will be asked tomorrow,”Kostin said.
Russia repealed capital controls in 2006, however last week Central Bank Chairwoman Elvira Nabiullina said that Moscow would consider “non-standard” mechanisms to ensure economic stability.
Capital controls aren’t the only monetary tool the Central Bank could consider. If the ruble continues to weaken, it may decide to re-start currency interventions, pumping in billions of dollars to artificially prop up the currency. This would be a policy reversal for the bank, which has recently loosened its monetary controls in order to make the overvalued ruble free floating by 2015.
“Never say never, but not at this stage, definitely,” the VTB CEO said when asked if capital controls are on the horizon.
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Russia could ditch US dollar in 2-3 years – head of Russia’s #2 bank

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis

wo to three years would be enough time for Russia to switch to international settlements to the ruble, Andrey Kostin, head of Russia’s second-biggest bank VTB, said.
“Two to three years is enough, not only to launch [settlements in rubles], but also to complete these mechanisms. But much will depend on how banks will cope with the task,” Kostin said in an interview with Izvestia newspaper.
Kostin first put forward the idea of switching to national currencies in international settlements about a decade ago, which means a move to the ruble shouldn’t be considered a counter-sanction measure.
“I did not find understanding in this matter with the previous leadership of the Central Bank [10 years ago ] They believed that since the [US] dollar works, we shouldn’t do anything, and settlements in rubles will just bring additional risks. Under the new leadership the position of the Central Bank changed. I think that soon we will achieve a major breakthrough,” Kostin said.
Creating a national payment system and establishing a domestic rating agency are among other priorities for the bank, the VTB head added.
The media has reported on the possibility of the US and EU widening sanctions to exclude Russia from the SWIFT global money transfer system.
Kostin said the move would become “a point of no return” and that any further dialogue would be impossible if SWIFT was cut off.
“If you look at Iran’s experience, shutting down SWIFT only happens when all relations; political, economic, cultural, even diplomatic, break down,” the VTB boss said.
“I don’t know how [Western] banks could block SWIFT and then expect cooperation in the fight against terrorism and nuclear disarmament.”However, replacing SWIFT within Russia won’t be difficult, Kostin said.
“We have a [similar] system at the Central Bank of Russia and others. The Central Bank has tested this system, and we can switch to it at any moment.”He said that domestic payments account for about 90 percent of VTB settlements and won’t be affected. Across the entire Russian banking system the share of domestic payments is even higher, Kostin explained.
SWIFT action
http://rt.com/business/191804-russia-ditch-dollar-2-years/ 

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US Stocks Slide, Ruble Plunges As Russia Prepares Capital Controls

Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
Just days after Ukraine began discussing capital controls, and Russian lawmakers passed a bill enabling asset freezes, it appears Russia has reached its limit.
  • *RUSSIA SAID TO WEIGH CAPITAL CONTROLS IF NET OUTFLOWS INTENSIFY
The Ruble is plunging towards 40 to the USD (CB intervention levels), US equity futures gapped lower, and European stocks are sliding.
As Bloomberg reports,
Russia’s central bank is weighing the introduction of temporary capital controls if the flow of money out of the country intensifies, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions.
Such measures would be preventative and used only if net outflows rise significantly, the people said, who asked not to be identified because no decision has been made. They didn’t give a timeline or a level that may force such a move, saying they are looking at all possible scenarios.
The discussions are the latest sign that U.S. and European sanctions are hurting Russia and rethink policies the central bank has sought to avoid. The Economy Ministry last week raised its estimate for this year’s outflows to $100 billion from $90 billion. Russia hasn’t had a net inflow of private capital since 2007, the year after lifted restrictions.
Central bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina, a former economic aide to President Vladimir Putin, said in an address to the government on Sept. 25 that “introducing capital controls doesn’t make sense.”
Still, if trades restrictions — such as the U.S. and EU sanctions and Russia’s retaliatory measures — are prolonged and the tax burden rises, capital outflows will intensify. That will push the regulator to shift its focus more toward ensuring financial stability from fighting inflation and use various instruments “including non-standard” means, Nabiullina said.
The central bank’s press service declined to comment. The Finance Ministry isn’t discussing such measures, Svetlana Nikitina, a spokeswoman, said by text message.
US equities gapped lower…
And the Ruble plunged…
  • *RUBLE WEAKENS TO BOUNDARY OF RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK’S TRADING BAND
  • *RUBLE WEAKENS TO LEVEL WHERE CENTRAL BANK SAYS WILL INTERVENE

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