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One of the key questions to emerge from Elon Musk's going private "funding secured" fiasco, is where was the board before, during and after the series of torrid tweets sent out by the Tesla CEO in the past two weeks. In an overnight NYT article, we finally get a fairly clear picture of what was going on through the heads of the company's board of directors, and it's not pretty.
While we urge readers to skim the full piece here, below are some of the key soundbites in what appears to be the first step in the board throwing Musk under the bus as defense against a potentially destructive SEC probe that could have vast implications not only for the CEO, but the company in general.
First, it appears that a big rift has emerged between Musk and the Board, to wit: "Members of Tesla’s board are scrambling to control a chief executive who some directors think is out of control."
The key issue: the same one that was brought up by a key Tesla investor over a month ago, with no success: getting Musk to shut up.
In recent days, according to people familiar with the matter, some of his fellow board members delivered a stern message: Stop tweeting.
Mr. Musk hasn’t heeded that advice. He has continued to post messages on Twitter, publicly plotting the company’s strategy and in some cases making assertions of dubious accuracy. That has only added to the chaos engulfing the struggling company.
But more concerning for Musk is that the Board, which previously endorsed Musk's confusing narrative of events with a brief statement that effectively confirmed what we now know never happened, namely that the funding was never "secured", is now building a firewall from the CEO's increasingly toxic tweets:
Tesla’s board members are also racing to inoculate themselves from the possible fallout from Mr. Musk’s public statements.
While it’s standard for boards to retain lawyers to counsel them on complicated matters, Tesla’s outside directors have hired two law firms to represent them.
Some of the especially colorful words that emerge from the report: "alarmed", "blindsided", "erratic":
Some members of the board have grown alarmed by what they see as Mr. Musk’s erratic behavior, according to three people familiar with some directors’ thinking. Directors were blindsided last week when Mr. Musk claimed on Twitter that he had “funding secured” for a possible deal to convert Tesla from a publicly traded company into a private one. Such a transaction would most likely cost well over $10 billion.
A discussion of what Musk knew when only solidifies the case that Musk's only intention was to burn the shorts:
Musk said this week that he has been in talks with Saudi Arabia’s main government investment fund about possibly working on a deal to take Tesla private. But there were no indications that Mr. Musk has actually nailed down any commitments to bankroll such a transaction, and the Securities and Exchange Commission last week contacted the company about Mr. Musk’s Twitter posts, which drove up the company’s shares and prompted a halt in trading.
The NYT then focuses on the composition of the "independent" board, highlighting that it is anything but, which will be an issue as part of the company's attempts to take itself private.
One independent director’s personal relationship was deemed too close for him to sit on a committee the board established to evaluate Mr. Musk’s potential going-private transaction, according to two people familiar with the matter. As a result, that key committee only has three members.
Meanwhile, as Musk's erratic behavior has stunned investors, the board has similarly been shocked by how Musk forced it to do damage control for him.
“The issues facing Tesla relate to a lack of operational maturity,” said Roger McNamee, a Silver Lake founder who is now a managing director of the private-equity firm Elevation Partners. “The market has been remarkably patient as Tesla struggles to scale its manufacturing.” That patience has been tested by Mr. Musk in recent months. He has publicly disparaged financial analysts and insulted a cave diver who was helping rescue members of a Thai soccer team.
Board members’ frustrations have intensified in recent days.
Directors were upset that Mr. Musk’s tweets forced them to rush out a public statement explaining a transaction that was at an embryonic stage, according to people familiar with the thinking of board members.
So where would the growing feud between the board and Musk get resolved? Apparently, on twitter, where Musk's behavior will determine if he is paying attention or courting disaster:
Multiple directors have recently told Mr. Musk that he should stop using Twitter, with one urging him to stick to building cars and launching rockets, according to people familiar with the board’s communications. Tesla employees, including the company’s public-relations staff, have echoed that point, another person said.
Which brings up a bigger question: just how loose is board oversight of its CEO, and why did it take an SEC probe into the company to force directors to start taking the company's current problems seriously? Or does the board know something investors don't, and is "scrambling" to take measures to distance itself from its wayward CEO?
For the answer keep an eye on Musk's tweeting, which as we noted recently has spiked exponentially in recent months, in what appears to be a desperate diversion from "something else."
Judging by the board's response, that "something" could be far more damaging to the company than anything revealed so far.
The full NYT article can be read here.
On any other day, today's surge in the Turkish Lira would have been sufficient to prompt a sharp rebound in global risk and euphoria across emerging markets as "the Turkey contagion was contained." But not today, for a few main reasons: first, the spike in the Lira was due not to improving fundamentals but as a result of another soft capital control: the local banking regulator announced that the total amount of foreign currency and lira swap and swap-like transactions can’t exceed 25% of banks’ legal shareholder equity (which followed a similar determination at 50% just two days earlier). The logic behind the move, taken straight out of the PBOC's playbook: to "kill offshore lira liquidity to stop foreigners shorting the lira" as Blue Bay's Timothy Ash noted.
And while the crackdown on shorts worked initially, sending the USDTRY sliding as much as 7% below 6.00, traders are aware that these moves have at beast a very short term impact, and a resumption in the Lira's slide is virtually assured, especially after a Turkish judge rejected a release request from US pastor Brunson while Erdogan announced new tariffs on US imports, guaranteeing that the diplomatic feud with Erdogan will get worse in the next few days.
As a result, despite the lira's temporary strength, U.S. equity futures slumped to session lows following declines in both Europe and Asia on Wednesday as risk appetite continued to be tested. Futures on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all pointed to a lower open.
Treasuries climbed, with the 10Y yields sliding below 2.90%, while the dollar surged to the highest level in 14 months, sucking liquidity out of emerging markets and sending industrial metals sliding: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a fifth day, up 0.2% to highest level since June 2017.
“In light of all the turmoil we’ve seen out of Turkey and the subsequent contagion into other emerging markets, the dollar is pretty much establishing itself as the safe-haven currency,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street Bank. "If you are going to park your money somewhere to stay away from the turmoil, the dollar is going to be the currency of choice."
And with the dollar surging, what spooked traders today was not so much Turkey but China, where the Yuan tumbled to new one year lows, with the USDCNH rising above 6.92 while the onshore yuan also fell below 6.900 per dollar, its lowest level since May 2017.
Elsewhere, Hong Kong intervened for the second time in three months overnight to defend its peg to the after the local currency fell to the weak end of its trading band. However, with the PBOC refusing to intervene and halt the Yuan's drop, and with traders expecting more trade war retaliation from Trump, the Shanghai Composite was a straight diagonal lower, closing 2.1% lower - down for a 3rd day - and just above the lowest level set for 2018.
The strong dollar’s victims are of course emerging currencies, with many remaining under pressure despite the lira’s recent bounce. But the greenback’s rise has also pummelled euro and sterling. There was another key factor in today's EM rout: China's Tencent tumbled after reporting disappointing earnings, missing on both the top and bottom line: Tencent (0700 HK) quarterly net profit of CNY 17.867bln vs. Exp. CNY 19.3bln (Prev. CNY 18.231bln), revenue CNY 73.675bln vs. Exp. CNY 77.7bln (Prev. CNY 56.606bln). And with a weight eight times (4.9%) that of Turkish stocks, this one Chinese company pulled down the EM index.
Overall, Asian shares ex-Japan slid more than 1% to one-year lows while MSCI’s all-country equity benchmark was a quarter percent lower but it stayed off one-month lows reached on Monday.
After a positive start to the European session, where volumes were muted and liquidity was drained due to the Assumption Day public holiday, raw material producers pulled the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down as industrial metals such as copper and zinc falling to the lowest in more than a year, with copper on the verge of a bear market.
As Bloomberg adds, with the US bull market just one week away from becoming the longest in historym investor caution remains amid thin summer trading, and as trade tensions between China and the U.S. linger.
"I think we have not seen the worst of it yet,” Peter Tchir, Academy Securities head of macro strategy, said on Bloomberg Television. “You’ve only started to see a knock-on effect. I think this is truly the eye of the storm and we are going to get another round of emerging-market weakness.”
Elsewhere in FX, the pound tumbled under $1.27 for the first time since June 2017, having lost ground for 11 days in a row, its longest losing streak since 2008. The currency is being undermined by confusion around what trade deal it (the British government) will negotiate with the European Union ahead of Britain's planned exit next year from the bloc.
Price increases were boosted by the cost of auto fuel, transport tickets and computer games. The Aussie and Kiwi were sold against the dollar as liquid proxies to the Turkish lira and South African rand. The yen dropped a second day against the dollar while Japan’s 10- year bond yields edged lower after the central bank refrained from cutting purchases.
There was more "evasive action" by various Central Banks and authorities to stem the capital flight, with an ‘unexpected’ Indonesian rate hike - the fourth time since May - accompanied by further measures or verbal pledges to inject liquidity and contain excessive price action/speculative attacks. However, many regional currencies have lost recovery momentum and handed back a chunk of Tuesday’s recovery gains if not more in some cases.
Oil fell on inventory increases and as Libya’s output climbed. The crude complex has continued the pullback seen in yesterday’s trade that was exacerbated by a surprise build in API crude inventories, with Brent and WTI breaking though the USD 72/BBL and USD 67/BBL levels to the downside.
Taking a look at metals, all of zinc (-2.2%), lead (-1.9%) and gold (-0.5%) are down with the yellow metal below the USD 1190/OZ level, as the rising USD is hitting the metals sector as a whole. Gold, the other traditional safe haven, sank to 18-month lows, also hurt by dollar strength.
“The dollar will continue to be the safe-haven asset of preference. As a consequence, gold prices are really going to struggle,” said Daniel Hynes, an analyst at ANZ Bank.
Copper is also down about 2% on the day and has hit a 13 month low, with the construction material hammered by the Escondida copper mine union stopping a strike amid a new contract offer.
Economic data include retail sales, industrial output and Empire State manufacturing survey. Cisco, NetApp and Macy’s are due to report earnings.
- S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,838.25
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.07% to 385.19
- MXAP down 1% to 161.48
- MXAPJ down 0.9% to 521.57
- Nikkei down 0.7% to 22,204.22
- Topix down 0.8% to 1,698.03
- Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 27,323.59
- Shanghai Composite down 2.1% to 2,723.26
- Sensex up 0.6% to 37,852.00
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,329.02
- Kospi up 0.5% to 2,258.91
- German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.328%
- Euro down 0.1% to $1.1333
- Brent Futures down 0.7% to $71.95/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield fell 7.1 bps to 2.758%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.409%
- Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,188.14
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 96.78
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- A Turkish court refused to release U.S. pastor Brunson: Hurriyet
- Major Turkish companies, financial institutions and the government have at least $16 billion in bonds denominated in foreign currency that are due by the end of next year, data compiled by Bloomberg shows
- President Donald Trump “has a great deal of frustration,” his spokeswoman said, calling again on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to release an American pastor and other U.S. citizens as a diplomatic standoff continued to weigh on global financial markets
- The franc’s recent appreciation against the euro highlights how frail financial markets still are, Swiss National Bank Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg said
- Trade conflict impact on China’s industrial production, employment and consumer prices will be “controllable”, National Development and Reform Commission spokesman Cong Liang says at a briefing
- Russia’s central bank, one of a handful in Europe to cut interest rates this year, could increasingly consider a hike after the ruble slumped following the latest U.S. sanctions and the risk of more to come
- Hong Kong intervened to defend its peg to the dollar for the first time in three months after the local currency fell to the weak end of its trading band. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$2.159 billion ($275 million) of local dollars during New York trading hours on Tuesday, according to the de facto central bank’s page on Bloomberg
- China is able to weather the escalating trade war with the U.S. and achieve its economic targets for this year, an official at the nation’s top economic planning body said
- New Zealand’s government will ban foreigners from buying residential property, making good on its promise to crack down on offshore speculators who it says are partly to blame for spiraling house prices
- Indonesia’s central bank surprised most economists by raising its benchmark interest rate a fourth time since May, moving swiftly to contain the volatility sweeping across emerging markets and curb a slide in its currency
Asian equity markets were mostly negative. Nikkei 225 (-0.7%) weakened amid profit taking following the prior day’s gains of over 2%, while ASX 200 (+0.4%) remained afloat on technical buying as the index reclaimed the 6300 level but with upside capped by losses in financials as Australia’s largest lender CBA suffered on criminal misconduct allegations. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-2.0%) saw hefty losses and the Hang Seng (-1.5%) declined to its lowest in around a year in a continuation of the recent underperformance as Tencent and tech names remained pressured, while the PBoC skipped reverse repo operations for a 19th consecutive occasion and although it later announced CNY 383bln in 1yr MLF loans, this was still lower than its previous MLF operation of CNY 502bln in late July. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher with only minimal support seen amid the profit taking seen in Japanese stocks and BoJ’s presence in the market in which the central bank kept its purchase amounts unchanged. PBoC refrained from reverse repos but announced to lend CNY 383bln through 1yr Medium-term Lending Facility.
Top Asian News
- Dollar-Yen Carry Trade Just Got More Alluring, Thanks to BOJ
- Chinese Hot Pot Chain Said to Seek Approval for $1 Billion IPO
- China Is Said to Suggest New Bidding Limits for Special Bonds
- China Gas Stocks Slump as Margin Risks Take Sheen Off 2018 Rally
European equities have started the day marginally positive in a news-thin day as certain European bourses, including the FTSE MIB, are shut due to a public holiday. The metals sector is slightly underperforming on softer base metals prices, with the Stoxx 600 basic resources index breaking its July-low support level to the downside. The day has been dominated by earnings news flow, where Admiral Group (+4.2%) and Vestas Wind Systems (+7.5%) eat on expectations and are leading the gains in the Stoxx 600. William Demant (-7.2%) missed on expectations, however, and are at the foot of the Stoxx 600
Top European News
- Highway Managers Must Resign After Bridge Collapse, Italy Says
- Credit Agricole Recommends Buying EUR/CHF on Possible SNB Action
- Nordic Funds Prove Haven in $56 Billion Europe Stock Drain
- South African Police Have Asked Interpol to Help With Steinhoff
In FX, Turkish Lira moves and Turkish news remain firmly in the spotlight, as other EM currencies continue to trade in lock-step and contagion spreads via the Usd through the G10 community. Indeed, the DXY climbed to fresh 2018 highs just shy of 96.900 (96.878 to be precise) when the Try retreated towards 6.6000 vs the Dollar and duly eased back when the pair breached 6.0000 to the downside before another bounce on headlines reporting that a Turkish Court has rejected a US appeal against the house arrest of Pastor Brunson – Usd/Try circa 6.2000 at writing. EM - Lots more evasive action by various Central Banks and authorities to stem the capital flight, with an ‘unexpected’ Indonesian rate hike accompanied by further measures or verbal pledges to inject liquidity and contain excessive price action/ speculative attacks. However, many regional currencies have lost recovery momentum and handed back a chunk of Tuesday’s recovery gains if not more in some cases. NZD/CHF - Bottom of the heap of majors, with the Kiwi only just hovering above 0.6550 vs its US counterpart and back below 1.1000 vs its antipodean peer despite extended AUD weakness alongside the YUAN by official and free-float market forces (Cny and Cnh both under 6.9000 vs the Usd and revisiting line in the sand intervention territory). On that note, the SNB appears to have reached its tolerance limit with the Franc and as suspected reiterated the need for ZIRP and FX intervention to curb Chf demand and stabilise fragile FX developments. Usd/Chf rebounding as a result towards parity and Eur/Chf close to 1.1300 vs 1.1275 at one stage
In commodities, the crude complex has continued the pullback seen in yesterday’s trade that was exacerbated by a surprise build in API crude inventories, with Brent and WTI breaking though the USD 72/BBL and USD 67/BBL levels to the downside. Taking a look at metals, all of zinc (-2.2%), lead (-1.9%) and gold (-0.5%) are down with the yellow metal below the USD 1190/OZ level, as the rising USD is hitting the metals sector as a whole. Copper is also down about 2% on the day and has hit a 13 month low, with the construction material hammered by the Escondida copper mine union stopping a strike amid a new contract offer Iranian Oil Minister to attend JMMC meeting in Algeria in September
Looking ahead to today, we will get a series of US data releases: July retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production and capacity utilization data along with August empire manufacturing, and preliminary Q2 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, June business inventories and August NAHB housing market index. Macy's will be reporting earnings.
US Event Calendar
- 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -3.0%
- 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 20, prior 22.6
- 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2.4%, prior 0.4%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.0%, prior 2.9%
- 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%;
- Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
- Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%
- 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%; Capacity Utilization, est. 78.2%, prior 78.0%
- 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
- 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 67, prior 68
- 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, prior $69.9b; Net Long-term TIC Flows, prior $45.6b
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
President Erdogan and Finance Minister Albayrak gave speeches that doubled down on the confrontational message and gave no indications of a positive resolution to the current political standoff with the US over American pastor Brunson’s house arrest. President Erdogan vowed to boycott American electronics, specifically expressing a desire to ban iPhones in favour of Samsung phones without giving details of when and how. Elsewhere, Turkey’s five-year CDS spreads tightened as well, falling 67.5 basis points, and 10- year sovereign bonds rallied 94 basis points. The strong moves were somewhat surprising, given the lack of concrete policy action by Turkish officials, although an easing of contagion fears, the central bank’s pledge of liquidity if required as well as Reuters reports of a potential conference call on Thursday where Finance Minister Albayrak will seek to reassure investors may have helped too.
Broader emerging market currencies performed well in line with the lira yesterday, especially those that had declined in unison over the last few sessions. The South African rand and Argentine peso gained 1.19% and 0.73% against the dollar, respectively. The Mexican peso also gained 1.24%, causing the trade-weighted dollar to close around flat. The DXY index, however, gained 0.35% to the strongest level since June 2017, as developed market currencies depreciated. The yen shed -0.41% but remains in its recent range, but the euro declined -0.58% to its weakest level in over a year and fell below its 200-week moving average.
This morning in Asia, the Turkish Lira is resuming its decline (-2.2%) and equities are broadly lower with the Hang Seng (-1.52%), Shanghai Comp. (-1.31%) and Nikkei (-0.85%) all down. Meanwhile, futures on the S&P are marginally lower while yields on UST10y are c2bp lower. As for data, China’s July new home prices grew to the highest in c2 years, up +1.2% mom and +6.6% yoy (vs. 5.8% in June). Elsewhere, Reuters cited an unnamed White House official who warned more economic pressure may be placed on Turkey if it refuses to release the American pastor.
Back to yesterday, the dollar’s recent strength is weighing on commodity prices. Brent crude oil failed to rally again yesterday, paring intraday gains of as much as 1.82% after news broke that India may cut oil imports from Iran by 50% to satisfy a US waiver. Countries like India are potentially the swing purchasers for Iranian oil; if they decide to follow US sanctions it will likely remove Iranian oil from the global market. The broader commodity complex was lower as well, with the bellwether CRB raw industrials index dipping to its lowest level of the year.
Front month copper futures fell 1.78% to their lowest level since last July. In the US, risk sentiment improved and the S&P 500 posted its first gain in the last five trading session, rising +0.64%. Banks led gains, rallying +1.04%, but they nevertheless remain -0.38% lower since their level before Turkey-related volatility intensified on Friday. Similarly, the VIX index fell 1.5 points but remains 2.4 points higher over the last week. Sectorally, cyclical sectors outperformed, with consumer discretionaries rallying 0.95% and utilities lagging behind. Treasuries sold off slightly but the 10-year yield ended the session broadly flat.
European equities failed to join the global rally yesterday, with the Euro Stoxx 600 closing flat. The weaker euro did not provide a tailwind, with the correlation between the single currency and the Stoxx 600 recently turning positive for the first time since last summer. Usually, a weaker euro boosts European exporters and increases the value of overseas earnings. Fixed income price action was firmer, with the IG and XO iTraxx indexes rallying 0.9bp and 2.4bp, respectively. German bund yields sold off slightly, in line with Treasuries, but peripheral spreads rallied notably. Italian two- and ten-year spreads to Germany closed 9 and 8.7 basis points tighter, respectively. This partially reflects the improved price action out of Turkey, but could be in response to more positive developments surrounding the upcoming Italian budget. Ansa reported that Prime Minister Conte and top ministers agreed that they will need to cut the debt stock moving forward.
Staying with Italy, ANSA also has reported that a 50-year old suspension bridge in Northern Italy has collapsed and led to at least 26 casualties. Following on, the Deputy Premier Salvini has signalled that EU rules should not hold back investments as he noted “there can be no trade-off between fiscal rules and the safety of Italians” while adding that “if external constraints prevent us from spending to have safe roads…then it really calls into question whether it makes sense to follow those rules”.
Moving onto Brexit where the German Chancellor Merkel may be suggesting a more flexible approach to Brexit talks. She noted that “hopefully it’ll not come to an unregulated Brexit, but rather to a reasonable negotiated agreement”, although she added that the UK has to “commit to re-accepting EU rules”. Earlier on, the UK Foreign Secretary Hunt noted that “we need a change in approach by the EC if we’re going to have a pragmatic deal that works for everyone”.
Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the July NFIB small business optimism index nudged up 0.7pts mom to a fresh 35 year high (107.9 vs. 106.8 expected). Respondents were more optimistic about the general economy, hiring and prospects for employee compensation.
In Europe, Germany’s 2Q GDP was above market at 0.5% qoq (vs. 0.4% expected), while prior data revisions have led to an annual growth of 2.0% yoy (vs. 2.1% expected). The German statistical office indicated that consumption and investment had contributed positively. Elsewhere, the second reading of the Euro area’s 2Q GDP was revised 0.1ppt higher to 0.4% qoq and 2.2% yoy, while the final reading of Germany and France’s July CPI was confirmed at 2.1% and 2.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the August ZEW survey indicated respondents were less pessimistic this month, with the expectations index for Germany (-13.7 vs. -21.3 expected) and the Euro area (-11.1 vs. -18.7 previous) both improving and now at the highest levels since May. Back in the UK, the June unemployment rate fell to a 43-year low, down 0.2ppt mom to 4.0% (vs. 4.2% expected) while the employment change was below market at 42k in 2Q (vs. 93k expected). Lastly, the average weekly earnings growth (ex-bonus) nudged down one tenth to an inline print of 2.7% yoy.
Looking ahead to today, we will get a series of US data releases: July retail sales, industrial production, manufacturing production and capacity utilization data along with August empire manufacturing, and preliminary Q2 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, June business inventories and August NAHB housing market index. Macy's will be reporting earnings.
The suspect arrested on suspicion of carrying out a terrorist attack at the UK Parliament on Tuesday has been named as Salih Khater, Sky News reported. It is believed the 29-year-old is a British citizen of Sudanese origin, and remains in police custody after his arrest on suspicion of preparing an act of terror.
A Facebook page for a man of the same name says he lives in Birmingham, works as a shop manager, and has studied at Sudan University of Science and Technology.
Khater has been arrested on suspicion of ramming a car into pedestrians and cyclists before crashing into security barriers outside the Houses of Parliament. The suspect is being held in custody in south London, and is said to be not cooperating with police. Scotland Yard’s head of counter-terrorism Neil Basu said no other suspects have been identified.
Police have been searching addresses in the Midlands after a car smashed into barriers near Parliament on Tuesday morning. Officers revealed the driver travelled from Birmingham to London on Monday night and arrived in the capital just after midnight.
He remained in the Tottenham Court Road area, close to Oxford Street, from around 1.25am until 5.55am.
The silver Ford Fiesta was then driven to Westminster and Whitehall for about 6am and stayed in the area until the time of the attack. It hit cyclists and pedestrians at 7.37am before crashing into security barriers.
According to the MI5, the suspect was unknown and "not currently cooperating", the Metropolitan Police said afterwards. His vehicle was removed late on Tuesday night.
Two addresses in the West Midlands city were being searched by counter-terror officers later that evening, as well as a flat in Nottingham's Radford/ Arboretum area.
* * *
It was the second terrorist attack on the Houses of Parliament in just under 18 months. The first one in March last year claimed the lives of five people, including a police officer. In a third incident, an attempted attack was foiled when counter-terrorist officers arrested the potential assailant, who was found outside parliament in possession of three knives.
A man and a women were taken to hospital with non life-threatening injuries after the vehicle hit cyclists in rush hour, but they have now been discharged. Witnesses described how the car came "whipping round the corner" and drove through about a dozen cyclists.
Robert Nicholson told Sky News he saw the incident unfold as he was waiting in a "safe cycling box" near Parliament. He chased the car after the impact left one woman flying up "onto the bonnet" and snapped the frame of one of the bikes.
Assistant Commissioner Neil Basu said: "There is no intelligence at this time of further danger to Londoners or to the rest of the UK connected to this incident."
In a day in which the dollar set new highs against all emerging market pairs and global risk was on the defensive, the Turkish Lira bucked the trend and extended its rapid rebound from record lows, after Turkish regulators imposed new "soft capital controls" to prop up the battered currency, making it even harder for banks to short the currency through the swap market.
One day after Turkey suspended mark-to-market for banks in a bid to offset fears about debt rollover and capital shortfalls, the Ankara-based Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) announced that the total amount of foreign currency and lira swap and swap-like transactions can’t exceed 25% of banks’ legal shareholder equity; the announcement came just 48 hours after a 50% was imposed on Monday, which however failed to make much of a dent in the selloff.
The latest move limits funds’ access to lira liquidity in the offshore swap market and makes it harder for them to borrow the currency from local lenders and short it. The rate on overnight dollar-lira swaps surged more than 12% points to 34.5%, the highest level since 2003.
“They are killing offshore lira liquidity to stop foreigners shorting the lira,” said Timothy Ash, a strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London.
Then again, this strategy - which just recently was attempted by China - tends to have a very short-term effect, as it does nothing to alleviate the underlying reasons behind a currency selloff.
For now however it is working, and the lira jumped for a second consecutive day, surging as much as 7% against the dollar with the USDTRY briefly sliding below 6.00, reversing much of the decline triggered by tensions with the U.S. Those tensions have been centered on a dispute over the detention of an American pastor, which resulted in tariffs and sanctions. The dispute exacerbated existing concerns about President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox approach to economic policy.
While on Monday the central bank promised “all necessary measures” to maintain financial stability, it didn’t mention higher interest rates and hasn’t raised them yet, even though Turkish corporate and banking executives have asked it to. Then on Tuesday,in another attempt to stabilize sentiment, we reported that the banking watchdog took an unconventional step to support the nation’s beleaguered banks, temporarily excluding the effect of day-to-day securities losses on how their financial strength is calculated.
The suspension of mark-to-market calculations on capital adequacy ratios will continue until prices of securities “normalize,” the banking regulator said in a document sent to banks on Tuesday. The "recent speculative volatility in markets" caused an “unfair erosion" in banks’ capital strength, it said. Under mark-to-market accounting, portfolios must reflect assets’ current market values rather than their book values.
The emergency moves followed the publication of a report from Goldman last week which spooked traders, and predicted that USDTRY above 7.1 would wipe out the banks' excess capital.
The average capital adequacy ratio of the banking system stands at 16 percent as of the end of June, according to official data. Every 10 percent decline in the lira reduces capital adequacy ratios by around 50 basis points on average, according to the Goldman Sachs report.
The BDDK also published a new set of regulations on loan restructurings by banks, financial leasing and factoring firms in the Official Gazette on Wednesday, Bloomberg reports. The new rules allow banks to extend the maturities of outstanding loans to clients, refinance them, make new loans to help troubled companies, and seek new collateral. Banks can also demand debtors sell assets to repay debts and improve their finances. Overdue loans can now be restructured within two years from the day a framework agreement is signed.
* * *
Meanwhile going back to the ongoing escalation in political tensions between the US and Turkey, one day after Erdogan vowed to boycott US electronics products, including the iPhone, Ankara slapped an additional tax on imports of a broad range of American goods. Turkey announced it would impose an additional 50% tax on U.S. rice, 140% on spirits and 120% on cars. There are also additional charges on U.S. cosmetics, tobacco and some food products. The was Erdogan's latest retaliation for the Trump administration’s punitive actions over the past few weeks to pressure Turkey into releasing an American pastor.
Bloomberg calculated that the items listed in the decree accounted for $1 billion of imports last year, similar to the amount of Turkish steel and aluminum exports that were subjected to higher tariffs by President Donald Trump last week. The decision shows Turkey giving a proportionate response to American “attacks” on the Turkish economy, Vice President Fuat Oktay said in tweets this morning.
Zor günlerde liderinin etrafında kenetlenen Milletimiz, kural tanımaz tavırlara karşı uluslararası kamuoyu ile de kenetlenmiş, haksızlıklara karşı Dünya’yı cesaretlendirmiştir. Durmak yok, yola devam.— Fuat Oktay (@fuatoktay06) August 15, 2018
In addition to imposing the new tariffs, Erdogan assured the spat with Trump would get worse before it gets better after a local court denied US pastor Brunson's appeal to be released from house arrest. A local court in Izmir rejected the appeal by the US Pastor to be released from house arrest pending his trial on espionage and terrorism-related charges.
A higher Turkish court was still considering the appeal and Brunson's lawyer, Ismail Cem Halavurt, told CBS News on Wednesday that he would not consider the appeal formally rejected until the higher court issues it's ruling. He said that was likely to happen by the end of business on Wednesday. A previous appeal by Brunson was rejected at the end of July.
In response to this barrage of new developments out of Turkey, we expect Trump will shortly escalate his own crackdown on Turkey most likely in a tweet which in turn will send the lira plunging once more.
It wasn't just David Einhorn who picked just the wrong time to dump most of his Apple stock: in the second quarter, some of the most iconic hedge funds like Duquesne’s Stanley Druckenmiller, Moore Capital Coatue Management and Jana Partners either bought or added to stakes in Facebook in the second quarter... just days before the company's biggest crash in history.
Other weres luckier, and the rich(est) got richer, as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway boosted its stake in Apple from 239.6 million shares to 252 million shares, and added to Teva and Goldman Sachs, while trimming holdings in Wells Fargo, American Airlines, and United Continental.
Also observed during Q2: hedge fund managers made big Q2 bets that the U.S. economy would continue to expand despite increasing concerns about a broadening trade war. Third Point added new positions in payment companies PayPal Holdings and Visa, both of which are up more than 19% year to date. Greenlight Capital, run by billionaire investor David Einhorn, added new positions in low-to-middle income retailers including Dollar Tree, Dollar General , Gap Inc and TJX Companies (or maybe he just hired a new and convincing retail analyst).
At the same time, Reuters notes that some other large hedge fund managers cut their positions in FAANG stocks - Third Point sold all of its stake in Alphabet and divested 1 million shares of Facebook, reducing its position in the company by 25 percent. At the same time, it increased its stake in Microsoft by nearly 310 percent, buying 1.7 million shares. Omega Advisors, meanwhile, sold all of its position in Netflix.
As noted earlier, a number of prominent HF managers sharply cut their stake in Apple only weeks before it became the first publicly traded U.S. company to be worth more than $1 trillion. Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital slashed its stake by 77%, while Philippe Laffont’s Coatue Management got rid of 95%. Advisory firm Diamond Hill Capital Management cut its stake by 27%. Other big holders, including Sanders Capital and Adage Capital Partners, trimmed only small amounts in the second quarter. On the other side of the trades were Warren Buffett and a variety of central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
Some other observations from the latest set of 13Fs:
- Hedge funds hummed their way into holding Spotify stock in Q2, as the company was acquired by Tiger Global, Coatue Management, Maverick Capital, Moore Capital and Soros Fund Management
- Davidson Kempner, Soroban either exited or sold down stakes in NXP Semiconductors in the quarter before the company’s deal with Qualcomm was terminated last month, while Third Point and Highfields Capital Management added a new stake.
- Soros Fund Management cuts bank holdings including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup
- Jana Partners added shares of broad-based exchange-traded funds that track the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 indexes and took new positions in Wells Fargo & Co and food delivery company GrubHub.
- Greenlight Capital trimmed its stake in Apple along with Coatue Management before shares jumped 13 percent since the end of June.
- Eminence Capital exited its position in Papa John’s before shares dove following news that John Schnatter, the firm’s founder and then-chairman, used a racial slur, leading him to resign.
- Activist Corvex, fresh off Tuesday’s news that its target Energen is being purchased by Diamondback Energy, reported a new stake in MGM.
Courtesy of Bloomberg, below is a summary of the biggest buys and sells from the latest round of 13F filings as of June 30.
- Top new buys: NVT, PEG, VST, MAS, D, F, OGE, FCX, TRU, BV
- Top exits: NKTR, RTN, CQH, VVC, ETR, AGR, NDSN, PX, AEP, WCN
- Boosted stakes in SHPG, AET, MRK, AMZN, LMT, WFC, SRPT, HON, MMM
- Cut stakes in CC, DE, WRK, EMR, ITW, CI, PNC, BAC, DLTR, FTV
- Top new buys: AVGO, MIK, CLBK, HSIC, TRNC
- Top exits: PRF, AFSI, ALLE, SKYW, RCII
- Boosted stakes in LBRDK, PAH, MATW, HILI, GHL
- Cut stakes in GLIBA, ARCH, HDV, GLW, IWM
- Top new buys: KEY, SYMC, CFG, VST, EDU, NXPI
- Top exits: QQQ, AMAT, SMH, ALL, NVDA, HCA, BTU, URI
- Boosted stakes in MU, WDC, LNG, WFC, PAH, PCG, KNX, KMT, SUM
- Cut stakes in BABA, NRG, BAC, MGM, ALLY, AGN, XPO, GOOG, AMLP
BALYASNY ASSET MANAGEMENT
- Top new buys: T, BBY, WMT, ERJ, LNC
- Top exits: BURL, AIG, VIPS, URI, HTZ
- Boosted stakes in WFC, STI, DLTR, EVRG, DWDP
- Cut stakes in DIS, AA, NTRS, V, DRI
- Top new buys: TRCO, SBGI, TBIO, SHPG
- Top exits: PBF, IMOS, FWP, OREXQ
- Boosted stakes in FOXA, FOX, PCG, ABC, AGN, TMQ, VSAT, MCK
- Cut stakes in LN
- Top exits: VRSK
- Boosted stakes in AAPL, USB, TEVA, BK, DAL, GM, GS, LUV, AXTA
- Cut stakes in AAL, PSX, CHTR, UAL, WFC
BLUE HARBOUR GROUP
- Top new buys: GWR
- Top exits: FTNT, JACK, RDC, MDRX
- Boosted stakes in WCC, IWM, FCE/A, AXTA, SPY, OTEX, COMM
- Cut stakes in XLNX, MD, ON, ISBC
- Top new buys: CMI, AMAT, BABA, BMY, WMT, JNJ, LMT, AKAM, PHM, INTC
- Top exits: PG, GE, DVA, RIG, PEP, CPB, AMGN, FCX, DRI, MAS
- Boosted stakes in TD, RY, IEMG, TOL, CVX, MCD, SU, TEL, BNS, CAT
- Cut stakes in VWO, EEM, SPY, NFX, FB, SWN, CLF, BBBY, ABC, BIIB
- Top new buys: KDP, EQH, EVRG, BNS, BJ SBUX
- Top exits: AMD, USG, BABA
- Boosted stakes in C, AMAT, AMZN, V, KEY, DVN, MU
- Cut stakes in AVGO, ADI, LRCX, UTX, CSCO, ABT
CLINTON GROUP INC
- Top new buys: EL, CAT, LMT, MCK, VZ, CCE, FITB, LOPE, AGNC, ABX
- Top exits: MON, DRI, MA, LLY, JNPR, BCO, PEP, TWTR, HDS, CDNS
- Boosted stakes in PGR, HRB, COLM, WLK, DNB, ITW, CMD, ROK, MO, SNPS
- Cut stakes in FB, D, GOOGL, ABBV, AVY, REG, WCG, AMGN, EA, HSY
- Top new buys: SPOT, INTC, NOW, AAXN, HTZ, HUYA
- Top exits: SNAP, RHT, WDC, CGNX, LRCX
- Boosted stakes in FB, MSFT, ADBE, ATVI, PYPL, TAL
- Cuts stakes in MU, AAPL, AVGO, BABA, FWONK
- Top new buys: MGM, VNO, MDB, MHK, CHTR, LCA, FOXA, CTL
- Top exits: BABA, EVHC, KDP, IQ
- Boosted stakes in TMUS, NXPI, JBLU, BAC, MSFT
- Cut stakes in EGN, CRM, GOOGL, MDCO, FG, NOW, ICE, FB
DUQUESNE FAMILY OFFICE
- Top new buys: FB, GILD, OIH, MPC, SPLK, ADSK, DVN, ATVI, XLE, HD
- Top exits: INTC, NKTR, MU, JD, QCOM, YNDX, VIPS, STL
- Boosted stakes in MSFT, BABA, WDAY, CTRP, PAGS
- Cut stakes in GOOGL, STMP, AMZN
- Top new buys: DVN, VMW, FOX, SRE
- Top exits: EGN, TER, NOMD, VICI
- Boosted stakes in HES, DISH, EQT, MFGP, QQQ, ATHN, WIN, NXPI
- Cut stakes in CDK, ISBC, WIT, IMPV
- Top new buys: BERY, SYMC, QSR, HLT, HAIN, MHK, BECN, CPLG, CTRP, EQIX
- Top exits: PZZA, NEWR, JACK
- Boosted stakes in ELLI, TTWO, VMC, LEN, CF, EFX, EA, GOOG
- Cut stakes in WEN, ICE, MSFT, CBRE, ADSK, PYPL, IQV, FB, CYBR
- Top new buys: UEIC, CASY, GRPN
- Top exits: FNSR, MX, IWM
- Boosted stakes in APOG, STKL, BHE, BW, NCR, PETX
- Cut stakes in CCRN
- Top new buys: C
- Top exits: SRG
- Boosted stakes in T, VSTO, OAK
- Cut stakes in JOE, SHLD, VST
- Top new buys: NVT, MSFT, FBHS, HOLX
- Top exits: TMUS, CAH, RLGY, CMCSA, V, HUM, FB
- Boosted stakes in ESRX, FDC, CHTR, AET, ENDP, AGN, ARMK, MTOR, MCK, CNDT
- Cut stakes in HCA, LH, ANTM, CAR, IQV, UHS, NWL, CVS, WBA, APTV
GOLDEN GATE CAPITAL
- New buy: GWR
- Exits: KLXI
- Boosted stakes in ARCC, HXL, ADS, WCC, ALB
- Cut stakes in NGVT, TNET
- Top new buys: GPS, DG, TJX, AZO, DLTR, BBY
- Top exits: CEIX, DDS, TPR, BLMN, FIVE, ANF, PYPL, URBN, SFM, ODP
- Boosted stakes in IAC, BHF
- Cut stakes in MU, AER, AAPL, MYL, VOYA, PRGO, CNDT, ADNT, CNX, DSW
HIGHFIELDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
- Top new buys: NXPI, CVS, FB, LEN, PBR/A, SNE, ESRX, ACWI, MHK
- Top exits: EXPE, HDS, DLTR, IVZ, ENB, HAL, X, PE, MDLZ, TGT
- Boosted stakes in CHTR, AET, GOOGL, DIS, GOOG, EQT, RJF, MIK
- Cut stakes in HCA, FOXA, FDX, CMCSA, PXD, HLT, VER, H, VOD, CCE
- Top new buys: EGN, VMW, AFSI, CI
- Boosted stakes in IEP, NWL
- Cut stakes in HLF, LNG
- Top new buys: FB, BABA, MSFT, WFC, DXC, GOOGL, RPM, GRUB, ATUS
- Top exits: BLMN, NOC, KDP, WRK, CI, DISCK, IQ, ILG, ILPT, DBX
- Boosted stakes in PF, SPY, EA, CAG, A, AAPL
- Cut stakes in TIF, LRCX, HDS, ADSK, BSX, GM, ZBH, FDC, JACK, ANTM
- Top new buys: ESRX, ASND, FB
- Top exits: CJ, ABG,
- Boosted stakes in C, BIDY, WRK, CMCSA
- Cut stakes in CIT, ADNT, RLGY
LAND & BUILDINGS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
- New buy: DHI
- Top exits: RLJ, MAR, RESI, VTI, HST
- Boosted stakes in CLI, BKD, LEN, INVH, PLD
- Cut stakes in LSI, MAC, QTS
LONE PINE CAPITAL
- Top new buys: CP, NVDA, MHK
- Top exits: AVGO, TSM, BLK, TMUS, EXAS
- Boosted stakes in WYNN, TDG, MSFT, BABA, NOW, MELI, GOOG, IQV, BKNG, PAGS
- Cut stakes in FB, PYPL, STZ, ADBE, AMZN, FLT, EA, TRU, CSX, UNH
- Top new buys: IMAX, CPLG
- Boosted stakes in TEX, THRM
- Cut stakes in IAC, ITRI, DXC, BLDR, AIR, TPHS, VRTS
- Top new buys: DIS, AAOI, GPK, SPOT, ALNY, PRSP, COMM, CASY, GPS, TGT
- Top exits: TAP, SNAP, MGM, PM, LVS, CAR, WING, DPZ, ETSY, EAT
- Boosted stakes in DLTR, MA, CNC, TMUS, MHK, CIEN, BUD, MSFT, KORS, SCHW
- Cut stakes in V, UHS, EVHC, DWDP, AMRX, ADBE, WTW, VFC, TIF, TPR
- Top new buys: TMUS, AXGN, TSM, BRX, IDXX, GPS, CMG, ACGL, JEC, MTN
- Top exits: SCI, NTRS, CME, NKE, MU, SRCL, JPM, IBN, FLT, AXP
- Boosted stakes in TFX, ATVI, BBY, DGX, SPGI, MCD, BURL, ROST, ZTS, VRTX
- Cut stakes in BABA, BAC, DISCK, AVGO, UNH, SAGE, GS, AJG, GILD
- Top new buys: NXPI, GOOGL, WFC, MA, SPOT, TGT, FDC, AMP, KMX
- Top exits: MS, AAPL, GS, LMT, NOC, RTN, GD, COF, BPOP, PLNT
- Boosted stakes in GCP, FB, EQT, PX, FBP, MOMO, NVDA, CME, GM, TMUS
- Cut stakes in BABA, BAC, MSFT, AVGO, CCI, ISBC, V, TWTR, EA, VOYA
- Top new buys: NRG, IQV, LEN, MPC, CVS, KKR, MGY, WRD, CDAY, IMMU
- Top exits: BMY, WFC, NAVI, NFLX, NYCB, GWPH, GLPI, D, BKI, NINE
- Boosted stakes in SBGI, ASH, HUM, TRN, C, FTSI, MU, TMO, PE, FRAC
- Cut stakes in SHPG, ANDV, MXL, PVH, DXC, DISH, AER, VVV, PFSI, ALLY
PAULSON & CO
- Top new buys: MITL, AKRX, CMCSA, ATUS, FOXA, LHO
- Top exits: MDR
- Boosted stakes in DISCK, NXPI, FOX, AET, XL, TMUS
- Cut stakes in GOLD, IAG, COL, AEM, GG, SHPG
- Top new buys: LOW
- Boosted stakes in UTX, MDLZ
- Cut stakes in ADP, QSR
POINT72 ASSET MANAGEMENT
- Top new buys: MPC, FOXA, TEVA, SGEN, WMGI, PNC, SGMS, AZO, LOXO, HUM
- Top exits: ANDV, NFLX, HON, LOW, MCD, AIG, NVDA, BYD, ETN, CAH
- Boosted stakes in GOOGL, HLT, BMY, PE, BIDU, SYK, DVN, CMCSA, DXC
- Cut stakes in WYNN, AVGO, STZ, OXY, ATVI, FB, BKNG, DWDP, BABA, LRCX
- Top new buys: MPC, FB, CVX, TEVA, PXD, NXPI, STM, USFD, NOW, APC
- Top exits: BAC, CFG, AVGO, DE, RF, FCAU, MYL, GS, NOC, GILD
- Boosted stakes in TRGP, AET, FE, NFLX, SHPG, MSFT, BABA, ADBE, VRTX, JD
- Cut stakes in CRM, LRCX, LNG, LOW, DWDP, LOMA, BMA, LLL, LYB, X
- Top new buys: AAPL, FB, MSFT, MS, AXP, ITW, CME, WY, FL, AMG
- Top exits: BKNG, VZ, MON, PG, WFC, SLB, TWX, KO, CVS, BDX
- Boosted stakes in VMW, ABMD, JNJ, WMT, VRTX, HLF, ABEV, WWE, GS, CTXS
- Cut stakes in HD, AMZN, BMY, LLY, PEP, UNH, NXPI, PM, CL, GILD
SANDELL ASSET MANAGEMENT
- Top new buys: KLXI, PAY, ANDV, GPT, EVHC, ILG, EDR, PF, COTV
- Top exits: STB, BABA, AKRX, BKS
- Boosted stakes in COL, NXPI, AVA, ORBK, XL, FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG
- Cut stakes in OCLR, MGI, KS
- Top new buys: MRK, FOXA, HD, BKI, LNG
- Top exits: AVGO, ARNC, LOW, BUD, CMCSA
- Boosted stakes in CZR, ICE, APTV, FDC, BA
- Cut stakes in DWDP, DHI, JAZZ, FG, XPO
- Top new buys: GOOGL, UTX, GRA, MHK
- Top exits: BUD, CMCSA, LBRDK, FB, CHTR
- Boosted stakes in SAP, NSC, AXTA
- Cuts stake in NXPI, UNP, MGM, AVGO, FWONK, GOOG
SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT
- Top new buys: SPOT, P, COUP, FB, DVN, EXR, HUBS, HLT
- Top exits: KW, LRCX, AMLP, ZAYO, BAX, TMO, LH, TGT, CI, KRE
- Boosted stakes in NXPI, XL, I, LPLA, NOW, CRM, TTWO, LULU, CVE, ETFC
- Top new buys: WEB, RPM, SCOR
- Top exits: EVHC, BCO
- Boosted stakes in BMS, IWN, PRGO
- Cut stakes in NWL, MAC, CARS, BAX, DEPO
- Top new buys: ASLN
- Top exits: KRE, JPM, BAC, WFC, MS, GS, SENS, RDUS
- Boosted stakes in CTL, HDB, PYPL, V, GPN, MA, PTLA, DWDP, WP, AVGO
- Cut stakes in VIRT, AMRS, NETS, AMZN, BABA
- Top new buys: UXIN, COUP, ADBE, GDS, HUYA, PVTL, DOCU, NEW, CDAY
- Top exits: EHIC, SINA, ARCC, UAL
- Boosted stakes in TWTR, FB, NOW, MELI, RUN, BABA, SE, APO, CRM, ADSK
- Cut stakes in RDFN, JD, TDG, MSFT
- Top new buys: NXPI, PYPL, V, CPB, DE, FPAC, EGN, PVH, CWH
- Top exits: GOOGL, ICE, MHK, PAGS, ANTM, GGAL, GRBK, PAM, BKI, SUPV
- Boosted stakes in MSFT, ADBE, EA, MPC, UTX, DWDP, CRM, SHY, DOV
- Cut stakes in BLK, WP, STZ, FB, LEN, WYNN, SPGI, SHW, VMC
- Top new buys: NVT
- Boosted stakes in BK, GE, MDLZ
- Cut stakes in PNR, WEN, SYY
- Activist investor Trian takes new stake in undisclosed company
- Top new buys: AVHI, HD, CHFN, SHPG, VZ, FFKT, LHO, FBNK, NKE, ANDV
- Top exits: SPB, SBUX, DLTR, DECK, DXC, MSI, PEP, AIG, SPGI, IR
- Boosted stakes in PF, FOXA, TGT, TJX, BIDU, COL, AAPL, AET, JPM, CMCSA
- Cut stakes in SPY, NXPI, AMZN, C, WBA, MU, PAGS, BKNG, PDCO
- Top new buys: UFI, LIND, STRA, AES, EVA
- Boosted stakes in C, SLM, ADS, BHC, STX, AFI, MS
- Cut stakes in FOX
- Top new buys: GE, DWDP, MIDD, TMUS, ILMN, HBI, OLN, PTEN, CNC
- Top exits: WFC, ADS, TDG, WDC, VOYA, XEC, CVS, MOMO, NTES, CLR
- Boosted stakes in UTX, DIS, TMO, PE, AMZN, HIG, BMRN, MSFT, LNC, ANTM
- Cut stakes in XRAY, GOOGL, TD, FB, CP, NFLX, EFX, V, BUD, ADSK
- Top new buys: NVT, CNC, USG, PRSP, T, ATUS
- Top exits: GRA, SHPG, EVHC, WHR
- Boosted stakes in NXPI, XL, FMC, ESRX
- Cut stakes in TRCO, AABA, AVGO
After last night's violent, coordinated rampage by masked gangs of youths across five Swedish cities, Swedish politicians were quick to react with far-right, anti-immigrant party 'Sweden Democrats' seeing a surge in the polls ahead of September 9th's election.
"I get pissed off for real," Prime Minister Stefan Löfven hit out in an interview with Swedish radio, adding he wanted to ask the perpetrators "what the hell are you doing?"
"Society will come back hard on this," said the Social Democrat leader, who also raised questions about the scope and timing of the attacks, which police suspect were coordinated via social media.
"It looks very coordinated, almost like a military operation," Löfven said, adding that the police probe would show if the car fires were down to vandalism, organized crime or something else.
And one look at the times of the events confirms it...
As The Local reports, Lofven was not alone in his outrage.
Justice and Interior Minister Morgan Johansson called the attacks "despicable".
"Last year the government tightened the punishment for aggravated vandalism, which can now give up to six years in jail," he tweeted.
"Hope the thugs get arrested so that they get the punishment they deserved."
Ulf Kristersson, leader of the centre-right opposition party the Moderates, wrote on Facebook that "dreadful scenes are being played out in Gothenburg".
"These are no 'protests', this is sabotage. Sweden has tolerated this far too long. It has to end," he added.
Roger Haddad, justice spokesperson for the Liberals, called the attacks "unacceptable".
"Parents also have to be involved, they have to be woken up and informed of what their sons are doing," he wrote in a comment.
As Sweden's SVT reports, the police have identified several of the young people who were in place at the fires in Trollhättan and confirmed that there is suspicion that the action has been coordinated.
"We have already started talking to parents with the parents in the morning, who were in place. We chose not to seize someone but have identified them and talked with them, "said Ulla Brehm.
We have an update on the situation.— PeterSweden (@PeterSweden7) August 14, 2018
The Swedish police spokeswoman Ulla Brehm says that they have DECIDED to NOT arrest anyone over the riots last night.
Instead they have identified them and will be talking with their families.
This has caused an outcry amongst Conservatives. https://t.co/y9s810CfSJ
Based on testimonies and the fact that the fires started about at the same time, the police suspect that the actions may have been coordinated through social media.
It took more than 20 years for littoral states of the Caspian Sea to reach an agreement that would lay the legal foundations for the full utilization of the region’s resources. The Fifth Caspian Summit in Aktau, Kazakhstan, brought the long-sought breakthrough after leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Iran signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea – a remarkable feat considering that heretofore, barring bilateral deals, the Caspian has been governed by an obsolete 1940 convention between the Soviet Union (of which four current littoral states were a part) and Iran.
As the current Convention incorporates a plethora of tradeoffs between countries, let’s look at them in greater detail so as to grasp the implications of the deal.
The Convention stipulates that relations between littoral states shall be based on principles of national sovereignty, territorial integrity, equality among members, non-use of threat of force (it was only 17 years ago that Azerbaijan and Iran almost started a full-blown naval war over contested fields) and non-intervention.
The military-related clauses of the document can be considered a net diplomatic success for the Russian Federation as it prohibits the physical presence of any third-party armed forces, along with banning the provision of a member state’s territory to acts of aggression against any other littoral state. Since Russia is by far the most power nation in terms of both general military clout and military presence around the Caspian, this will placate Russian fears about any potential US (or other) encroachment in the area.
Then there’s energy... Although the Convention establishes a general legal framework for territorial disputes to be solved, it refrains from any particularities. Therefore prolonged negotiations are to be expected with regard to many disputed oilfields, stemming predominantly from Irani and Azerbaijani claims. Iran advocated throughout the entire negotiation process an egalitarian approach to delimiting the seabed (each nation would get 20% of the coast), running counter the other countries’ aspirations. The things is that when Russia concluded its seabed delimitation agreements with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in 2001 and 2003, respectively, the parties split their parts using the median line. Point 8.1. effectively keeps the delimitation task in the hands of relevant governments, thereby providing a very modest boost to the demarcation of the Southern Caspian (the Northern part is fully delimited).
There are two main territorial conflicts to be settled – the Irani-Azerbaijani and the Azerbaijani-Turkmen disputes. The row between Baku and Teheran revolves around the Araz-Alov-Sharg field (discovered in 1985-1987 by Soviet geologists), the reserves of which are estimated at 300 million tons of oil and 395 BCm of natural gas. Even though the field is only 90 kilometers away from Baku and should seemingly be under Azerbaijan’s grip, if one is to draw a straight line from the Azerbaijani-Irani border most of the field ought to be allotted to Iran (the median would keep most of it in Azerbaijan). As those old enough to remember the 2001 naval ship hostilities would attest, it does matter at what angle the final line is drawn.
The Serdar/Kapaz field (estimated to contain 50 million tons of oil) is the bone of contention between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Considered to be an extension of Azerbaijan’s main oil-producing unit, the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field, Baku sees it as an indispensable element in its quest to mitigate decreasing oil output numbers. Geographically, Serdar/Kapaz is closer to Turkmenistan, yet here too Azerbaijan might come out the ultimate winner. The Apsheron peninsula stretches out some 60km into the Caspian Sea, in effect extending Azerbaijan’s geographical reach. Absent previous demarcation agreements between Baku and Ashgabat, the settlement will once again boil down to getting the angles right, as in the case of Araz-Alov-Sharg. However, it must be said that a resolution might come about as a by-product of new gas endeavors.
Clause 14, dealing with laying subsea pipelines and cables, is the one most coveted by energy analysts, since it has the potential to significantly alter Europe’s gas supply options.
According to point 14.2., all parties have the right to construct subsea pipelines given that they comply with environmental standards (which are particularly strict in the Caspian Sea). With no further caveat included, some analysts might be tempted to think that Russia will inevitably use the “environmental protection” card when trying to stop the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline (TCP) from Turkmenistan, a pipeline it spent many years to halt. Under current circumstances, when US-Russian relations falling ever deeper into an insurmountable ditch, Moscow’s decision to allow for the construction of the mightily Washington-backed TCP to take place might be perceived as a massive omission.
Since the Turkmen gas is unlikely to find demand in Azerbaijan or Turkey, it would need to take the whole route via the South Caucasus Pipeline, TANAP and TAP. Merely the transportation tariffs from these pipelines would render any transportation economically unviable unless European gas prices rise substantially to levels above $300/MCm. Moreover, the estimated cost of building the subsea TCP of $2 billion is a disabling burden for either Türkmengaz or SOCAR. Thus, allowing the construction of Trans Caspian gas pipelines might be a brilliant ruse from the Russians – cognizant of all the deficiencies above, they can wield it as a sign of good will in their never-ending negotiations with the European the economics for supplying gas to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor are far from being Union.
This being said, there are natural impediments to see the TCP implemented anytime soon. Azerbaijan might be interested in getting transit fees for Turkmen natural gas, yet it lacks the required infrastructure to include the above volumes in its traditional conduit via Turkey.
All in all, the Caspian convention is a good basis for further negotiations, even though it falls short of being an all-encompassing legal framework. Territorial disputes will most likely remain frozen for quite some time and no new gas pipeline projects will see the light of day unless market conditions change.
The United Kingdom is to leave the European Union on March 29, 2019, but a final deal has yet to be agreed between Westminster and Brussels.
In the event of a "no-deal Brexit", the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union without a free trade deal, Britain would have to adopt rules set by the World Trade Organization (WTO). This scenario, as Statista's Raynor de Best notes, could mean that airline licenses, medicine certifications and certain citizen rights end overnight along with an increase in bureaucratic checks on goods and people passing in and out of the country.
According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a hard Brexit would also lead to significant long-term economic damage across the European continent.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The Washington-based fund said the economic output of the EU-27 could be reduced by 1.5 percent of GDP by 2030.
Ireland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium, all countries with close trading links to the UK, would be hit hardest. Germany would lose 0.5 percent of its GDP due to industrial supply chains.
Nations with financial ties to the City of London, such as Malta, Cyprus and Luxembourg, would also be negatively affected by a "no deal".
The IMF estimated, for example, that two-way bank claims between Luxembourg's financial sector and the UK were about 220 percent of Luxembourg's GDP.
In July, the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) celebrated its 10-year anniversary. Most Europeans, however, are unlikely to have heard about the Union, let alone the anniversary. The media rarely reports on the UfM and its activities.
The participating countries in the UfM are the 28 European Union (EU) member states and the Southern Mediterranean countries, which include Albania, Algeria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, "Palestine", Syria (temporarily suspended), Tunisia and Turkey. Libya has observer status in the UfM. The UfM is chaired by a "co-presidency" shared between the European Union and Jordan. The UfM Secretariatmaintains the daily operations of the UfM and is run by a Secretary General, presently Nasser Kamel (Egypt).
The UfM was launched by a decision of the UfM Heads of State and Government in Paris in July 2008, and constitutes an institutionalization of the Barcelona Process, which began in November 1995 with the signing of the Barcelona Declaration.
According to the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed), the Euro-Mediterranean alliance launched by the Barcelona Declaration Process "was structured around three main work areas (political and security dialogue; economic and financial partnership; and social, cultural and human partnership)" between the EU and the mainly Muslim majority countries in North Africa and the Middle East (usually referred to in UfM context as the Southern Mediterranean).
In January 2017, the 43 foreign ministers of the UfM agreed on a "Roadmap for Action" in Barcelona, which aims at "enhanced regional cooperation and integration in the Mediterranean," setting out "three key interrelated priorities, regional stability, human development and integration." It was the first political document adopted by the UfM foreign ministers since 2008.
The UfM lists a number of ways in which it seeks to achieve regional stability and human development. One of them is "Intercultural and Interfaith dialogue" the aim of which is, among other things:
"[T]o exert all efforts to bridge any potential cultural divide to fight against extremism and all forms of racism and to build upon a common heritage and aspirations. Intercultural and Interfaith dialogue in the Mediterranean is an important underlying dimension of all regional cooperation activities in the framework of the UfM."
The EU countries involved in the UfM appear unbothered by promoting "integration" -- or even claiming "a common heritage" -- with countries such as Mauritania, where, according to recent reports, up to 20% of the population (Haratines and other Afro-Mauritanian groups) is enslaved, and anti-slavery activists are regularly tortured and detained.
The UfM has held 15 ministerial conferences on "key strategic areas" in the past 5 years on topics such as, Strengthening the role of Women in Society (Egypt, November 2017), Sustainable Urban Development (Egypt, May 2017), Water (Malta, April 2017), Energy (Italy, December 2016) Employment and Labour (Jordan, September 2016), Regional Cooperation and Planning (Jordan, June 2016), Blue Economy (Belgium, November 2015) Digital Economy (Belgium, September 2014), Environment and Climate Change (Greece, May 2014), Industrial Cooperation, (Belgium, February 2014) Energy (Belgium, December 2013), and Transport (Belgium, November 2013), as well as two Foreign Minister Conferences (Spain January 2017 and Spain November 2015).
The UfM aims to reach its priorities through projects such as "Empowering women and youth in the Mediterranean", "Promoting job creation and inclusive growth" and "Enhancing the Role of Women and Youth in Preventing Violent Extremism."
There is not the slightest allusion in the yearly report, nor in the 2017 Roadmap for Action, to the fact that in most Muslim countries, sharia law influences the legal code -- especially regarding personal status law, which concerns marriage, divorce, inheritance and child custody -- and that gender inequality may therefore be institutionalized and not something likely to change, regardless of the number of UfM projects. Nor is there any allusion to the role of Islamism in fostering "violent extremism". Instead, the roadmap for action speaks of joining "regional and international efforts to address socio-economic root causes of terrorism and extremism" and "developing further projects and initiatives of high impact, with a special focus on youth employability and women empowerment."
According to the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed):
"From 1995 to 2006, the EU allocated 16,000 million euros through MEDA programmes for bilateral and regional cooperation, aimed at fostering both socioeconomic projects (modernisation of the industry, promotion of the private sector, reform of the health sector, development funds...) and political and good governance reforms...
"The cooperation funds are channelled through the European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument (ENPI), aimed at both the eastern European and southern Mediterranean neighbourhood. The joint budget for both regions for the period 2007-2013 amounts to 11,000 million euros...
The funds allocated to cooperation with the EU neighbouring countries(in eastern Europe and the southern Mediterranean) for the period 2014-2020 amount to 15,000 million euros."
These figures do not include bilateral agreements between the UfM and EU countries, such as the €6.5 million multi-annual financing agreement between the UfM Secretariat and Sweden "to deepen and amplify UfM specific cooperation initiatives and core activities promoting regional dialogue."
Given these large sums, it is remarkable that the UfM and its activities enjoy little to no scrutiny in the European press. Especially as, in the words of IEMed in its 2015 assessment of the 20th anniversary of the Barcelona Process, "The scenario of concord set out for the Mediterranean in the 1995 Barcelona Declaration has never become a reality".
Subsequent Islamic radicalization and terrorism and the years-long migrant crisis constitute recent examples of the failure. IEMed's assessment continues:
"The roadmap designed in the Catalan capital could not predict the destabilising effects on the region of al-Qaeda on 11S and the subsequent invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq; the political immobility and lack of reforms and improvements in governance in many MPCs; the non-creation of the free trade area in the Mediterranean scheduled for 2010; the lack of south-south regional integration; the instability caused by the Arab Spring since 2011, currently with two failed states, Syria and Libya; the migration and refugee crises; or the emergence of Islamic State terrorism that is ravaging Syria and Iran and has already shown its capacity to attack Europe."
The UfM has itself conceded:
"UfM countries have among the highest unemployment rates in the world, affecting mostly youth and women, which adds to many other pressing issues such as social cohesion, migration or efforts to counter radicalization."
Despite this apparent evidence of the failure of the Barcelona Process and the UfM, the latter nevertheless sees itself as having "entered a new phase, building on the progress achieved so far... increasing and expanding activities demonstrate that windows of opportunity exist to further develop regional cooperation."
The UfM, undeterred, barrels on with its goal to achieve:
"greater levels of integration and cooperation in the region through a specific methodology that has yielded positive results in terms of political dialogue and the implementation of region-wide initiatives in which young people play a key role.
With more than 50 labelled projects and over 300 ministerial and expert fora gathering 25,000 stakeholders since 2012, UfM activities illustrate the strong belief that regional challenges call for regional solutions and that there is no security without development."
It seems counterintuitive that nearly a quarter century of costly investment by Europe in the southern UfM countries appears to have yielded few to no positive results.
A map of the Union for the Mediterranean members. Blue are EU member states, brown are other members, Libya (red) is an official observer, and Syria (green) is a suspended member. (Image source: Treehill/Wikimedia Commons)
Despite the UfM's own aforementioned assessment of challenges having reached "unprecedented levels," the EU nevertheless continues the Barcelona Process in the form of the UfM. It is also bizarre that any substantive evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Barcelona Process, and the UfM and its many projects is absent from most public discourse, as the media apparently fail to report on the UfM and its activities.
If you want to move to the world's most liveable city, pack your bags and book a flight to Vienna.
The Economist assessed 140 major cities worldwide on stability, healthcare, culture and environment, education, and infrastructure, declaring the Austrian capital the most liveable city for the first time. Australia's second most populous city, Melbourne, scored 98.4 out of 100. Osaka, Japan, came third with Calgary and Sydney rounding off the top five.
You will find more infographics at Statista
In total, three Canadian and three Australian cities made the top-10 list.
Interestingly, U.S. cities are notably absent from the top of The Economist's ranking with Copenhagen the only other European city this year besides Vienna.
However, as Statista's Niall McCarthy notes, even though people living in Damascus are daring to hope that their country's long and bloody civil war might be drawing to a close, the Syrian capital is at the opposite end of the ranking. It scored just 30.7 out of 100 where 100 is ideal.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Dhaka, Bangladesh and Lagos, Nigeria, rounded off the bottom three with scores of 38.0 and 38.5 respectively.
While most of the bottom-10 are scattered across Africa and the Middle East, Karachi in Pakistan and Port Moresby in Papua New Guinea were among the bottom-ranked cities.
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Elite Forex Blog - Market Research & Analysis
- i) buy $30MM in tZero tokens,
- ii) buy up to 3.1MM shares of OSTK for $104 million (a 5% discount to the Aug. 1 closing price of $33.72),
- iii) invest as much as $270MM for up to 18% of tZero’s equity at a whopping post-money valuation of $1.5 Billion.
Having concluded its Security Token offering, tZERO has raised aggregate consideration of $134 million. This figured includes $30 million from repayment of intercompany debt between tZERO and Overstock. GSR has signed a repurchase agreement to acquire these tokens. As I will diagram in our earnings call, we have designed quite an ecosystem with a scale that matches the enormous opportunity in front of it. When GSR completes its planned investments, we should have over half-a-billion dollars. We believe this will provide ample capitalization with which to build a company that can upend global capital markets.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.The risk of loss in trading commodity interests can be substantial. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This material does explain all the risks involved in futures and options trading. Please refer to the following for a fuller disclosure and our risk disclosure statement: https://alphazadvisors.com/risk-disclosure-statement/
About this podcast: EP 137: The horse bettor exploiting anomalies in financial markets – Dr. William Ziemba Dr. William Ziemba’s an academic, a practitioner, gambler, trader and an author. He’s worked with and consulted to many well-respected names in the field, such as; Edward Thorp, Blair Hull and the very successful horse bettor, Bill Benter. In the beginning, horse betting was William’s field of expertise (he even published a book titled, Beat The Racetrack!) And in many ways, for William, horse betting worked as a gateway to trading financial markets—which he’s been doing since 1983.
Visit AlphaZAdvisors.com for more info.
Enter Crypto Currency which was relatively undeveloped as a traders' market until the huge rise of BTC/USD in the fall of 2017. Now there is a quickly growing community of Crypto Day Traders and Total Cryptos is here to facilitate that. The problem with trading Crypto vs. other markets is there is a huge amount of fake data in Crypto. As any trader knows, information is king - which is why it's important to have real-time information that matters. Just like in FX, that may mean looking at multiple exchange prices. It means having multiple sources of news and data. It means paying for information. How bad is the problem of bad data? Just look at today's news, from Coin Desk, where 'A CoinMarketCap "data issue" caused significant artificial inflation of several coins listed on the platform on Friday, with some prices inflated by nearly 1000 percent.':
While bitcoin's price spiked 12 percent on the crypto data site, other coins saw more drastic increases. The price of aeternity, the eighth most valuable cryptocurrency, increased more than 951 percent, while MOAC increased by 905 percent and bitcoin diamond saw an 876 percent jump on the site. The site's exchange tracker feature was also affected, and falsely indicated that bitcoin was trading above $73,000 on some exchanges. While crypto Twitter speculated about potential price manipulation, bugs and hacking, CoinMarketCap told CoinDesk that the inflation was caused by a data error. "There was a price calculation error on tether which caused any listing with a tether market to become artificially inflated," marketing vice president Carylyne Chan said in an email. While most of the data appeared to have normalized at press time, the 24 hour change percentage for VeChain's VET token was listed as a question mark and its price graph was unavailable on the home page. The VeChain page also had no historical data listed. The popular analytics platform has promised to release a "post-mortem" with further details in the near future.Imagine that happened in the stock market. So the good news, any new market presents new and uncharted opportunities. With that as always comes big risks, but it is a traders job to manage and maintain control of those risks. Having the right tools is par for the course. Or take a look at this article "Why intra-day trading crypto can be better than holding":
If you are relatively new to trading crypto currencies, then this tutorial is what you need. In this tutorial I will try to explain how you can use crypto to grow your capital base by at least 1% per day.The reason why holding isn’t a very practical move for well established coins is because of their volatility. For instance, Bitcoin (see chart below), increased by ±30% over a period of ±20 days. But it doesn’t mean it had a linear increase of 1.5% per day, some days went down while others went up.
Total Cryptos is extensively researching this new market as well as working on our development of real time trading systems for Crypto Day Traders. We've opened a public forum on the topic for open discussion which can be found here: https://portal.totalcryptos.com/forum/trading-cryptos Registration is free so join the discussion today!
- Private Equity investors or Pre-IPO investors may want to look at this hot new Crypto option.
- Cornucopia is an example of how Blockchain is really innovating the alternative investment space.
William B. Thompson, who was in Petrograd from July until November last, has made a personal contribution of $1,000,000 to the Bolsheviki for the purpose of spreading their doctrine in Germany and Austria ....Washington Post, February 2, 1918
As the digital money frenzy of the past few years cools, the crypto coin graveyard is filling up. Dead Coins lists around 800 tokens that are bereft of life, while Coinopsy estimates that more than 1,000 have bought the farm.The carnage is mostly the consequence of failed projects from the thousands of startups that used initial coin offerings to raise billions in funding, and a global regulatory crackdown on questionable practices and scams. Names like CryptoMeth, Droplex and Roulettecoin may have been a clue to the coins’ dim prospects.“There has obviously been a lot of fraud and hype in the ICO market,” Aaron Brown, a business author and investor who writes for Bloomberg Prophets, said in an email. “I accept figures I have seen that 80 percent of ICOs were frauds, and 10 percent lacked substance and failed shortly after raising money. Most of the remaining 10 percent will probably fail as well.”
CME’s bitcoin futures derive their final value from prices at four bitcoin exchanges: Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and Kraken. Manipulative trading in those markets could skew the price of bitcoin futures that the government directly regulates.
But virtual currencies may – will – become part of the economic practices of any country, anywhere. Let me repeat that: these currencies are not going away and they will proliferate to every economy and every part of the planet. Some places, small economies, may become dependent on virtual assets for survival. And, these currencies will be outside traditional monetary intermediaries, like government, banks, investors, ministries, or international organizations.We are witnessing a technological revolution. Perhaps we are witnessing a modern miracle. -Rostin Benham
Under the CEA and Commission regulations and related guidance, exchanges have the responsibility to ensure that their Bitcoin futures products and their cash-settlement process are not readily susceptible to manipulation and the entity has sufficient capital to protect itself. The CFTC has the authority to ensure compliance. In addition, the CFTC has legal authority over virtual currency derivatives in support of anti-fraud and manipulation including enforcement authority in the underlying markets.
http://Bitcoin.org just removed/censored the 2 largest US Bitcoin companies (@BitPay Payment processing and @coinbase Bitcoin Exchange). It’s a good move: Bitcoin Core is obviously no longer Bitcoin, and should ideally be removed from both @BitPay and @coinbase too.
- As a secure notepad, for taking notes, or for programming Solidity, or your website.
- As a secure private ledger, for recording your Crypto transactions.
- As a store of account usernames and passwords, including 2FA info.
“If bitcoin ends up being the cyber equivalent of gold and it has a great potential left and it’s a very different kind of thing from what people in Silicon Valley focus on—companies, not algorithms not protocols, but this might be maybe one exception that is very underestimated,” the Silicon Valley elite said.
The question with something like bitcoin is whether it can become a store of value. And the thing it would replace is something like gold. The analogy is it's like bars of gold in a vault that never move and you get it and it's a hedge of sorts against the whole world falling apart.""The objections that people have to bitcoin are also objections to gold. It's this weird currency that's not backed by any government. Same thing is true of gold. It's not clear what the intrinsic value of bitcoin is. Same thing is true of gold. It may well be a bubble, but - and most bubbles are unstable and end - one of my friends has this line that 'money is the bubble that never pops', so if it is a bubble, then it is money.""If everybody decided that a $100 bill was worthless then you wouldn't want to have a $100 bill."
Currently, buying or selling large quantities of digital currencies is tricky because the market is fragmented across more than 100 crypto exchanges around the world. Connecting to all of them requires setting up a separate account with each one, and crypto exchanges generally impose limits on daily flows in and out.That makes it cumbersome and time-consuming to pull off a big trade, and the price of a digital currency can move dramatically before the investor finishes buying or selling.Tagomi hopes to make it easier to make such bulk trades by borrowing a page from the stock market. In U.S. equities, broker-dealers use systems called smart order routers that dispatch their clients’ buy and sell orders to various venues, including a dozen exchanges and more than 30 off-exchange “dark pools.”These routers make rapid-fire decisions about which market is the best place to execute a trade at any given time. Tagomi is looking to develop a similar tool for the crypto markets, according to people with knowledge of its plans.
(Bloc10 4/29/2018) -- This is a macro-deep-analysis of how Crypto can create a new parallel system by feeding off the old carcass of the dying fiat central banking model.As we explain in our book Splitting Pennies – the financial world is not as it seems. Gurus from many, non-correlated financial disciplines have been predicting for years that the current financial system is going to collapse. But just like Planet X that never came, and the false alarm of the Y2K bug, it seems that collapse has been postponed. There’s an answer for this, that isn’t being reported in the financial media. We must look at the whole picture here, so think macro, think global, and read carefully. First let us state plainly that this collapse theory is all based on solid data – the debt bubble, over leveraged banks like DB who is 50:1, growing stagnant economic growth, etc. the list of apocalyptic economic data goes on and on – so what’s keeping the system afloat? Greed? There is one difference and it’s a big difference, a huge one, that all the doom and gloomers need to consider. It’s not a ‘this time it’s different’ argument, but we have to consider global system dynamics and how they were different in Rome and other ‘empire collapse’ metaphor scenarios; today there are powerful Artificial Intelligence systems that are so powerful, they can out think any opponent 10 moves ahead. Perhaps it is this intelligence that suggested the creation and proliferation of Bitcoin to replace the economic position that traditional fiat banks failed to provide? If you look at the system as a whole, Bitcoin is an extremely intelligent solution to economic decay that Quantitative Easing alone cannot solve (and QE has proven to be impotent). Facebook is at the end of it’s use cycle. Perhaps the most important Fakebook article here on ZH is this one:"Every part of this has made me sadder and sadder and sadder. I feel like my baby has turned out to be something horrible, and these people I trusted and helped along have forgotten where they came from," he said in a conversation with Kevin Delaney, Quartz’s editor-in-chief. McNamee has become an outspoken critic of the company, comparing its role in the 2016 US election to "the plot of a sci-fi novel" while at the same time admitting that he has "profited enormously" by backing Facebook early on. The organization he helped found, the Center for Humane Technology, has made it a mission to expose Facebook’s multiple flaws, and to try to fix them.How is Fakebook related to Crypto? You should have read Michael Lewis’ The New New Thing – A MUST READ. These ideas are not dated. Silicon Valley, Wall St., and DC still operate in this way. Fakebook created a massive bubble out of nothing, 462 Billion as of today. Facebook isn’t anything, they don’t build anything, they are just programming the minds of the less gifted and in the process keeping tabs on what their neighbors feed their dogs. Here’s what one Fakebook insider had to say:During his talk, he echoed criticisms by early Facebook executive, Chamath Palihapitiya, who compared Facebook to “Internet crack” and said it’s “ripping apart the social fabric of how society works.”Fakebook did it’s job. It ripped apart the social fabric of how AMERICAN society works. While Facebook is a global app, it doesn’t have the same significance in other countries. Perhaps a few US friends like UK, Australia, etc. are in the same boat – but most countries not. Facebook is from the beginning an intelligence collection apparatus and means of social control, first and foremost. Incidentally, investors made a bundle on it and it’s a darling of Wall St. (until recently). Let’s be practical, without InQTel behind it, Fakebook would have never got off the ground. The CIA needed a slimy weasel like Suckaburger to do their electronic bidding as the spy game globally and domestically was moving to an electronic paradigm. Don’t forget that the military created the internet, it wasn’t developed by 2 dudes in their mom’s garage. The internet has always been and perhaps always will be a military communications system used by the public. There’s a price to pay for ‘free’ networks! Now of course, there are groups of private networks who have setup peer to peer encrypted communications systems and their own private social networks and chat systems like Telegram, but that represents a small percentage of the overall population which is irrelevant. If we look at Facebook on the surface, for what it is – a pump and dump scheme backed by the Military sold by Wall St. to Main St. to control them and suck more of their hard earned dollars from them, meanwhile keeping tabs on their every move, and making a buck for America’s owners – Bitcoin is the same thing! Let’s call a kettle a kettle. Bitcoin is popular for one reason – some people made millions on it. And the people who made millions on Bitcoin are mostly average folks, mostly advanced or above average technical people. With a few exceptions like Mike Novogratz, few Wall St. types, few Elite aristocrats (if any). Sound familiar? Remember Fakebook in 2007, 2008 even before the massive control systems, the gamed news feeds, before things just ‘vanished’ like if you write something they didn’t like (disappearing sentences, accounts, etc.) There was a time before Fakebook went ‘viral’ that it was ‘hip’ and only for ‘techies’ not the ‘main stream’ and then suddenly it ballooned. So there are some obvious technical differences here, just like there are differences between Fakebook and the Real Estate / Sub Prime pump and dump scam, and Bitcoin, and the scams before it. Scam is a harsh word but the fraud is so elaborate and malicious that much more harsh words are called for. Fakebook literally can be credited with destroying the social fabric of America. Some would argue that’s a good thing – but it’s another topic. Bitcoin is a Crypto Currency but like any investment, it has a lot of features like social media. The interesting link here is that Social Media made Bitcoin popular. For years the price stagnated, and it didn’t get much attention. Once the price started going up – then it went viral. People love making money! It was an alternative investment for the masses. You could buy Bitcoin with as little fiat money as you had. This, and the fact that it was digital, and global, gave it the mass appeal finally shooting the price to stratospheric levels. So hold on to your horses in case you don’t know this and you start screaming and spook them – As we explain in our book Splitting Bits – we believe based on available public evidence that the creator of Bitcoin was the NSA, either as a sub-unit or an individual working for the NSA. We have no smoking gun evidence – but no one else does as far as any alternative creator. Our scenario is simply the most plausible – it’s not necessarily the facts. There is not 100% fact showing the real face of the creator of Bitcoin. And the NSA will not confirm or deny it’s involvement, but it will provide a statement to an FOIA request that it will not confirm nor deny if such information would be or would not be classified (of course). But what’s interesting is that, the NSA is reportedly monitoring Bitcoin transactions under a program called MONEYROCKET: For instance, one memo from the NSA, the report cited, suggested the agency has collected private information such as bitcoin user passwords, internet activity and device identifiers.According to the report, the NSA has been monitoring the internet activities of bitcoin users since 2013 through a program with codename as OAKSTAR. And yet the new leak suggested that with MONKEYROCKET, another sub-program under OAKSTAR, the NSA may be moving closer to pinpoint users who initiate a cryptocurrency transaction."SSG11 analysts have found value in the MONKEYROCKET access to help track down senders and receivers of bitcoin," one memo reads.If these memos are real, and there is no reason to believe they are not, they are likely an indicator of what’s really going on, such a program would likely involve a team of people, millions of dollars, and hundreds or thousands of documents. NSA didn’t setup MONKEYROCKET to track down a few money launderers. It’s not their job, really.. Going back to the Facebook analogy, we have to consider 1) how Bitcoin goes up and 2) how Bitcoin is primarily a grassroots movement from the fringe. Crypto is the next bubble, we can ride the bubble – but here we will make a bombastic claim: Bitcoin is the MySpace. Bitcoin isn’t ‘the bubble’ actually Bitcoin is a poorly designed currency and remember that for Bitcoin there was no ICO. This ICO terrible idea was popularized mostly by quasi criminals who were ineligible for registration. We’re referring to financial criminals, the new mafia (they have evolved from the days of protection insurance, etc.), fraudsters, Ponzi scammers, and other similar elements the Crypto world has attracted. Bitcoin is the social media of finance. But instead of sharing photos of old friends and breakfast choices, Bitcoin enabled a higher element of socialization, i.e. ‘hey I just made 10,000% return on my money, you might want to check this out.” It’s like the .com boom on steroids, and it was global (Bitcoin isn’t a US product per se). In order to ‘spend’ Bitcoin it was necessary for early adopters to engage in viral marketing to make Bitcoin viable. The concept of fully electronic money is not new, but in 1989 David Chaum’s DigiCash failed, for a number of reasons but the most likely was the fact that the internet didn’t have the penetration in 1990 as it did in 2010. Social Media and the internet was a conduit for Bitcoin. And Bitcoin quickly gave birth to Ethereum, and now there are more than 2,000 crypto currencies being built and developed on an exponential pace. Ironically though, there is only one regulated futures contract at the CME, Bitcoin Futures, and only 1 regulated ICO – the tZERO ICO (*it is ‘registered’ not ‘regulated’ but the point here is that tZERO has followed SEC guidelines, and they are a regulated company – they aren’t based in BFE with a bunch of John Doe’s as their Advisors). Our point here is that Bitcoin did what it set out to do – start a race of development which is fueled by the mania created by the 1,000,000% BTC/USD chart. Something like a million percent return never happened, and likely will never again. The group that created Bitcoin whoever they are, know very well that the large banks control the system and there is no hope of creating a ‘parallel’ system without the blessing of Wall St. and DC, this was most notably proven with Chile’s Project Cybersyn:Project Cybersyn was a Chilean project from 1971–1973 during the presidency of Salvador Allende aimed at constructing a distributed decision support system to aid in the management of the national economy. The project consisted of four modules: an economic simulator, custom software to check factory performance, an operations room, and a national network of telex machines that were linked to one mainframe computer.Project Cybersyn was based on viable system model theory and a neural network approach to organizational design, and featured innovative technology for its time: it included a network of telex machines (Cybernet) in state-run enterprises that would transmit and receive information with the government in Santiago. Information from the field would be fed into statistical modeling software (Cyberstride) that would monitor production indicators (such as raw material supplies or high rates of worker absenteeism) in real time, and alert the workers in the first case, and in abnormal situations also the central government, if those parameters fell outside acceptable ranges. The information would also be input into economic simulation software (CHECO, for CHilean ECOnomic simulator) that the government could use to forecast the possible outcome of economic decisions. Finally, a sophisticated operations room (Opsroom) would provide a space where managers could see relevant economic data, formulate responses to emergencies, and transmit advice and directives to enterprises and factories in alarm situations by using the telex network.The project was so head of its time, what a desktop computer can calculate was 10x more powerful than warehouses full of computers in 1971. But the idea had to be squashed and Allende was taken out and replaced with a US friendly regime. The timing of this dismantling of the world’s first AI economic management system, coinciding with Nixon’s creation of the floating FX regime, perhaps the opposite of intelligence, should be noted. Analysis & Conclusion So here’s the deal with Bitcoin and Crypto. The big wave, the paradigm shift – it’s going to be in the regulated coin space – the Dollar Cryptos, Fedcoin, Crypto Rubble, and Crypto securities. When you can buy and sell Crypto on regulated exchanges – then you’re going to see a real paradigm shift. And that’s coming – but slowly.IBM claimed it had as many as 20 central bank clients, which even if they were smaller central banks – would be huge news for the Crypto world:Over the past year, Lund says he’s met with 20 central banks exploring the potential benefits of issuing their own fiat cryptocurrency on a blockchain. Specifically, he described the “most durable digital asset” as one that is “issued by a central bank that represents a claim on fiat deposits in the real world,” but still maintains “some semblance of monetary policy.” Though he wouldn’t reveal the names of most of the central banks with which he’s meeting, he described them as largely comprised of banks from the G20, an international forum with members including China, Russia, the U.S. and the EU. Lund further described the central banks as “clients in some capacity.” Based on these conversations, he said he expects the first central banks to issue a fiat currency on a blockchain will be “the smaller ones” with a high concentration of interest in Asia and North America.Is Bitcoin going to 50,000? Probably not. But Bitcoin’s rise to 20,000 surprised many, so it would not be surprising if it went to 100,000. Just remember one thing – the only thing that makes Bitcoin go up is buying and no selling. Selling pressure from Mt. Gox trustees put sell side pressure on Bitcoin as they unloaded Billions of USD worth of Coins on the market. Bitcoin whales that control a huge chunk of available supply could sell. The only thing that can make Bitcoin go up to 50,000 are billions in USD worth of buy orders. There is a physical limit to the price of Bitcoin based on how much fiat currency there is in the world. For example if every available US Dollar, Euro, and all other fiat currencies converted ALL of themselves to Bitcoin it would go very high, and we can calculate what that number might look like. But it is a number it is not infinite. The same can be said for stock, real estate, or other bubbles – this is bubble dynamics 101 something that the Bitcoin crowd mostly misses. Here’s the demotivational speech. So we are claiming that Bitcoin is the MySpace and the “Facebook” of Bitcoin is still to be developed. Just like in the pre-IPO space, investors are looking at in the best case 20x – 100x returns if they catch it. Of course, it will not be easy to know WHICH of the 10,000 new coins is going to be the next Facebook. But likely it will be one backed by Goldman Sachs, it will be made in Silicon Valley or in Berlin, and it will be regulated. Regulated Crypto is the future. 10 years from now probably all assets will be Crypto assets – only because of the security and efficiency features. The global FX markets for example, something Crypto stands to revolutionize, are really outdated, and didn’t really change their model since FX was created by Richard Nixon in 1971. Even until 2007 banks engaged a majority of their volume on ‘voice orders’ ! The global financial system has been ripe for an upgrade, and what Bitcoin did it said this to the world. It sent a message which was well received by Main St. investors, Wall St. financial engineers, and politicians alike. Now, they are pedal to the metal coding and designing around the clock. The first coin in the class we are referring to here is Basis, backed by Wall St. and Silicon Valley and cooked up in a frat room at Princeton, perhaps the most Elite of the finance schools depending on who you are debating.Basis recently got about $133 Million in a registered capital raise (we aren’t sure whether the ICO label is appropriate as it was a private offering, done as offerings should be done):Investors apparently love what Basis is cooking up. The upstart is announcing today that it has raised a somewhat stunning $133 million in funding from Bain Capital Ventures, GV, longtime hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller, one-time Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Foundation Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, WingVC, NFX Ventures, Valor Capital, Zhenfund, Ceyuan, Sky Capital, Digital Currency Group and others.The coin idea here is a ‘Stable Coin’ – which isn’t a unique idea, it is more of a sub-movement in the Crypto community. While Bitcoin got the world’s attention, it is a poor spending currency, certainly not a store of value, and the Blockchain technology behind Bitcoin is basic, although stable, does not represent the best of what Blockchain can do, as many other coin startups have pointed out. How this will save the financial system? It is a transition to a new global financial regime. Crypto Currency itself is not such an amazing development. In Scandinavian countries they have been using digital electronic money for years. What’s the difference really between Bitcoin in your wallet or your 100,000 USD at the bank? The banking system has become bloated, inefficient, and in great need of reform. New markets will open up which are Crypto-denominated. Trading strategies will evolve that were not before possible. The establishment will not be destroyed, by design – Bitcoin requires vast amounts of electricity to be mined. So unless the next ICO is going to raise $10 Billion to build ‘clean’ Thorium nuclear reactors, Bitcoin is not so different than the Petro Dollar as it must pay it’s utilities in USD from mining. Of course that’s just one model as shown by Bitcoin – but there are others – countless others. Bitcoin started a chain of events (pun intended) that will lead to the next ‘paradigm’ of currency.Document Information This deep analysis report was commissioned by Bloc10 authored by Global Intel Hub. 4/29/2018 for the 'Blogosphere'Bloc10 update Bloc10 released recently Total Cryptos Android App (Free) , the Desktop Website @ www.totalcryptos.com and soon will release an Apple App. Coming soon: Machine Learning Engine to predict the price of Crypto Currencies (paid service) and Blockpad, the world’s first secure Notepad for Crypto investors, Blockchain developers, and intelligence operatives. To stay tuned on further developments in the Crypto space plugin to Bloc10 @ www.bloc10.com/joinLinks: NSA MONKEYROCKET DOCUMENTS: Global Intel Hub Libraryhttps://wp.me/P6ZQKC-4X New New Thing Book
“This was an operational error in the movement of collateral between Deutsche Bank’s principal accounts and Deutsche Bank’s Eurex account,” Charlie Olivier, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, wrote in an emailed statement. “The error was identified within a matter of minutes, and then rectified. We have rigorously reviewed the reasons why this error occurred and taken steps to prevent its recurrence.”
The Lusitania set sail for Liverpool on May 1st, 1915 from New York harbor. It was carrying millions of rounds of ammunition and shrapnel. The previous captain Daniel Dow had resigned because of mixing civilian passengers with munitions. The ship was to have a British battleship escort called the Juno but was recalled before the rendezvous in spite of the knowledge that a Uboat was active in the path of the Lusitania.
Speaking with EuroNews, Russia's ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizov, said "Russian military specialists have visited this region, walked on those streets, entered those houses, talked to local doctors and visited the only functioning hospital in Douma, including its basement where reportedly the mountains of corpses pile up. There was not a single corpse and even not a single person who came in for treatment after the attack.""But we've seen them on the video!" responds EuroNews correspondent Andrei Beketov."There was no chemical attack in Douma, pure and simple," responds Chizov. "We've seen another staged event. There are personnel, specifically trained - and you can guess by whom - amongst the so-called White Helmets, who were already caught in the act with staged videos." "All these facts show... that no chemical weapons were used in the town of Douma, as it was claimed by the White Helmets." “All the accusations brought by the White Helmets, as well as their photos… allegedly showing the victims of the chemical attack, are nothing more than a yet another piece of fake news and an attempt to disrupt the ceasefire,” said the Russian Reconciliation Center.
“The Chinese have recently issued the gold backed Yuan, which they, and others, have vowed to use to sell/purchase oil (amongst other things). The last two nations that tried to introduce a currency to compete against the petrodollar were Libya and Iraq. The US needs that pipeline through Syria even more than ever now, especially if they are to compete for European gas/oil markets (presently controlled by Russia and their pipeline) and the Chinese Yuan. But i’m sure none of that has anything to do with it…”
“The United States will be a partner and a friend, but the fate of the region lies in the hands of its own people.”“Tonight, I ask all Americans to say a prayer for our noble warriors and our allies as they carry out their missions. We pray that God will bring comfort to those suffering in Syria.”
"Is the approach taken in Washington by the SEC adversely affecting distributed ledger technology in other areas? My quick answer is that my hope is that it's actually helping - because this technology is being used for fraud and to the extent that it's being used for fraud, history shows that government comes down harshly on that technology later."
Utility token debate
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.—Ernest Hemingway
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, in order to take additional steps with respect to the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13692 of March 8, 2015, and relied upon for additional steps taken in Executive Order 13808 of August 24, 2017, and in light of recent actions taken by the Maduro regime to attempt to circumvent U.S. sanctions by issuing a digital currency in a process that Venezuela’s democratically elected National Assembly has denounced as unlawful, hereby order as follows:Section 1. (a) All transactions related to, provision of financing for, and other dealings in, by a United States person or within the United States, any digital currency, digital coin, or digital token, that was issued by, for, or on behalf of the Government of Venezuela on or after January 9, 2018, are prohibited as of the effective date of this order.(b) The prohibitions in subsection (a) of this section apply except to the extent provided by statutes, or in regulations, orders, directives, or licenses that may be issued pursuant to this order, and notwithstanding any contract entered into or any license or permit granted before the effective date of this order.Sec. 2. (a) Any transaction that evades or avoids, has the purpose of evading or avoiding, causes a violation of, or attempts to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.(b) Any conspiracy formed to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.Sec. 3. For the purposes of this order:(a) the term “person” means an individual or entity;(b) the term “entity” means a partnership, association, trust, joint venture, corporation, group, subgroup, or other organization;(c) the term “United States person” means any United States citizen, permanent resident alien, entity organized under the laws of the United States or any jurisdiction within the United States (including foreign branches of such entities), or any person within the United States; and(d) the term “Government of Venezuela” means the Government of Venezuela, any political subdivision, agency, or instrumentality thereof, including the Central Bank of Venezuela and Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA), and any person owned or controlled by, or acting for or on behalf of, the Government of Venezuela.Sec. 4. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, is hereby authorized to take such actions, including promulgating rules and regulations, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA as may be necessary to implement this order. The Secretary of the Treasury may, consistent with applicable law, redelegate any of these functions to other officers and executive departments and agencies of the United States Government. All agencies of the United States Government shall take all appropriate measures within their authority to carry out the provisions of this order.Sec. 5. For those persons whose property and interests in property are affected by this order who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, I find that because of the ability to transfer funds or other assets instantaneously, prior notice to such persons of measures taken pursuant to this order would render those measures ineffectual. I therefore determine that for these measures to be effective in addressing the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13692, there need be no prior notice given for implementation of this order.Sec. 6. This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.Sec. 7. This order is effective at 12:15 p.m. eastern daylight time on March 19, 2018.DONALD J. TRUMP
A bizarre political statement by Saddam Hussein has earned Iraq a windfall of hundreds of million of euros. In October 2000 Iraq insisted on dumping the US dollar - 'the currency of the enemy' - for the more multilateral euro.The changeover was announced on almost exactly the same day that the euro reached its lowest ebb, buying just $0.82, and the G7 Finance Ministers were forced to bail out the currency. On Friday the euro had reached $1.08, up 30 per cent from that time.Almost all of Iraq's oil exports under the United Nations oil-for-food programme have been paid in euros since 2001. Around 26 billion euros (£17.4bn) has been paid for 3.3 billion barrels of oil into an escrow account in New York.The Iraqi account, held at BNP Paribas, has also been earning a higher rate of interest in euros than it would have in dollars.At the time of the change the UN issued a report saying that the move could cost Iraq up to £270 million. Independent experts questioned the value of buying into a plummeting currency.'It was seen as economically bad because the entire global oil trade is conducted in dollars,' says Fadhil Chalabi, executive director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies.
There are stories of the government confiscating computers and mining equipment from people. Tell us about this.Yes, sometimes the police squad that visits your place decides to seize your mining equipment, and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it.
What do they do with the equipment?Rumor has it they install them on government facilities.
Operation PBFORTUNE, also known as Operation FORTUNE, was the name of a covert United States operation to overthrow the democratically elected Guatemalan President Jacobo Árbenz in 1952. The operation was authorized by US President Harry Truman and planned by the Central Intelligence Agency. The United Fruit Company had lobbied intensively for the overthrow because landmark land reform enacted by Árbenz threatened its economic interests. The coup attempt was also motivated by US fears that the government of Árbenz was being influenced by communists. It involved providing weapons to the exiled Guatemalan military officer Carlos Castillo Armas, who was to lead an invasion from Nicaragua. The coup was planned with the knowledge and support of Anastasio Somoza García, Rafael Leonidas Trujillo and Marcos Pérez Jiménez, the US-backed right-wing dictators of Nicaragua, Dominican Republic and Venezuela respectively, as well as the United Fruit Company. However, the US State Department discovered that details of the plan had become too widely known. US Secretary of State Dean Acheson was worried that the coup attempt would damage the image of the US, which had committed to a policy of non-intervention, and so terminated the operation. Operation PBFORTUNE was a precursor to Operation PBSUCCESS, the covert operation that toppled Árbenz and ended the Guatemalan Revolution in 1954.
"We have been shamelessly threatened by the most criminal empire that ever existed and we have the obligation to prepare ourselves to guarantee peace," said Maduro, who wore a green uniform and a military hat as he spoke with his army top brass during a military exercise involving tanks and missiles. "We need to have rifles, missiles and well-oiled tanks at the ready....to defend every inch of the territory if needs be," he added.
- First, I’d highlighted all the wrong things.
- Second, I saw instantly how much these men were alike.
Number One: Start Out Clueless
“Q: Did you know anything at all about what you were doing? Had you read anything about commodities or trading?
A: No, nothing.
Q: Did you even know the contract sizes?
A: No, we didn’t.
Q: Did you know how much it was costing you per tick?
Q: Apparently, that was about the only thing you knew.
A: Right. Our next trade, in wheat, didn’t work either. After that, we went back to corn and that trade worked out better; it took us three days to lose our money. We were measuring success by the number of days it took us to lose.”
Number Two: Make the Same Mistakes as Everyone Else
“Soybeans are going to the moon…You are a fool to stay short the November contracts. Let me lift your November shorts for you, and when the market goes limit-up for the next few days, you will make more money.”
“It was a moment of insanity. Fifteen minutes later, my broker calls me back, and he sounds frantic.
‘I don’t know how to tell you this, but the market is limit-down! I don’t know if I can get you out.’ I went into shock. I yelled at him to get me out.”
“I was up about $45,000. By the end of the day, I had $22,000 in my account.”
Number Three: Take a Big Loss
“I went into emotional shock. I could not believe how stupid I had been — how badly I had failed to understand the market, in spite of having studied the markets for years. I was sick to my stomach, and I didn’t eat for days. I thought that I had blown my career as a trader.”
“Q: How much did you lose on the trade by the time you liquidated?
A: I lost my own $30,000, plus $12,000 of the $20,000 my mother had lent me. That was my lesson in betting my whole wad.”
Step Four: Reflect and Come Back Stronger
“It was at that point that I said, ‘Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life the pursuit of happiness rather than pain?’
That was when I first decided I had to learn discipline and money management. It was a cathartic experience for me, in the sense that I went to the edge, questioned my very ability as a trader, and decided that I was not going to quit. I was determined to come back and fight.”
Step Five: Learn the Age Old Lessons the Hard Way
As Tudor Jones says “losers average losers.”
Step Six: Money Management
Paul Tudor Jones says “I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money…I have a mental stop. If it hits that number, I am out no matter what.”
Step Seven: Stop Following Others
“It is a happy circumstance that when nature gives us true burning desires, she also gives us the means to satisfy them.”
Ed Seykota said “eventually I became more confident of trading with the trend and more able to ignore the news. I became more comfortable with the approach.”
Step Eight: Develop Your Own Style
As Ed Seykota says, “Everyone gets what they want out of the markets.”
Ed went further: “I think that if people look deeply enough into their trading patterns, they find that, on balance, including all their goals, they are really getting what they want, even though they may not understand it or want to admit it.”