(Bloc10 4/29/2018) -- This is a macro-deep-analysis of how Crypto can create a new parallel system by feeding off the old carcass of the dying fiat central banking model. As we explain in our book Splitting Pennies – the financial world is not as it seems.
Gurus from many, non-correlated financial disciplines have been predicting for years that the current financial system is going to collapse. But just like Planet X that never came, and the false alarm of the Y2K bug, it seems that collapse has been postponed. There’s an answer for this, that isn’t being reported in the financial media. We must look at the whole picture here, so think macro, think global, and read carefully. First let us state plainly that this collapse theory is all based on solid data – the debt bubble, over leveraged banks like DB who is 50:1, growing stagnant economic growth, etc. the list of apocalyptic economic data goes on and on – so what’s keeping the system afloat? Greed? There is one difference and it’s a big difference, a huge one, that all the doom and gloomers need to consider. It’s not a ‘this time it’s different’ argument, but we have to consider global system dynamics and how they were different in Rome and other ‘empire collapse’ metaphor scenarios; today there are powerful Artificial Intelligence systems that are so powerful, they can out think any opponent 10 moves ahead. Perhaps it is this intelligence that suggested the creation and proliferation of Bitcoin to replace the economic position that traditional fiat banks failed to provide? If you look at the system as a whole, Bitcoin is an extremely intelligent solution to economic decay that Quantitative Easing alone cannot solve (and QE has proven to be impotent). Facebook is at the end of it’s use cycle. Perhaps the most important Fakebook article here on ZH is this one:
"Every part of this has made me sadder and sadder and sadder. I feel like my baby has turned out to be something horrible, and these people I trusted and helped along have forgotten where they came from," he said in a conversation with Kevin Delaney, Quartz’s editor-in-chief. McNamee has become an outspoken critic of the company, comparing its role in the 2016 US election to "the plot of a sci-fi novel" while at the same time admitting that he has "profited enormously" by backing Facebook early on. The organization he helped found, the Center for Humane Technology, has made it a mission to expose Facebook’s multiple flaws, and to try to fix them.
How is Fakebook related to Crypto? You should have read Michael Lewis’ The New New Thing – A MUST READ.
These ideas are not dated. Silicon Valley, Wall St., and DC still operate in this way. Fakebook created a massive bubble out of nothing, 462 Billion as of today. Facebook isn’t anything, they don’t build anything, they are just programming the minds of the less gifted and in the process keeping tabs on what their neighbors feed their dogs. Here’s what one Fakebook insider had to say:
During his talk, he echoed criticisms by early Facebook executive, Chamath Palihapitiya, who compared Facebook to “Internet crack” and said it’s “ripping apart the social fabric of how society works.”
Fakebook did it’s job. It ripped apart the social fabric of how AMERICAN society works. While Facebook is a global app, it doesn’t have the same significance in other countries. Perhaps a few US friends like UK, Australia, etc. are in the same boat – but most countries not. Facebook is from the beginning an intelligence collection apparatus and means of social control, first and foremost. Incidentally, investors made a bundle on it and it’s a darling of Wall St. (until recently). Let’s be practical, without InQTel behind it, Fakebook would have never got off the ground. The CIA needed a slimy weasel like Suckaburger to do their electronic bidding as the spy game globally and domestically was moving to an electronic paradigm. Don’t forget that the military created the internet, it wasn’t developed by 2 dudes in their mom’s garage. The internet has always been and perhaps always will be a military communications system used by the public. There’s a price to pay for ‘free’ networks! Now of course, there are groups of private networks who have setup peer to peer encrypted communications systems and their own private social networks and chat systems like Telegram, but that represents a small percentage of the overall population which is irrelevant. If we look at Facebook on the surface, for what it is – a pump and dump scheme backed by the Military sold by Wall St. to Main St. to control them and suck more of their hard earned dollars from them, meanwhile keeping tabs on their every move, and making a buck for America’s owners – Bitcoin is the same thing! Let’s call a kettle a kettle. Bitcoin is popular for one reason – some people made millions on it. And the people who made millions on Bitcoin are mostly average folks, mostly advanced or above average technical people. With a few exceptions like Mike Novogratz, few Wall St. types, few Elite aristocrats (if any). Sound familiar? Remember Fakebook in 2007, 2008 even before the massive control systems, the gamed news feeds, before things just ‘vanished’ like if you write something they didn’t like (disappearing sentences, accounts, etc.) There was a time before Fakebook went ‘viral’ that it was ‘hip’ and only for ‘techies’ not the ‘main stream’ and then suddenly it ballooned. So there are some obvious technical differences here, just like there are differences between Fakebook and the Real Estate / Sub Prime pump and dump scam, and Bitcoin, and the scams before it. Scam is a harsh word but the fraud is so elaborate and malicious that much more harsh words are called for. Fakebook literally can be credited with destroying the social fabric of America. Some would argue that’s a good thing – but it’s another topic. Bitcoin is a Crypto Currency but like any investment, it has a lot of features like social media. The interesting link here is that Social Media made Bitcoin popular. For years the price stagnated, and it didn’t get much attention. Once the price started going up – then it went viral. People love making money! It was an alternative investment for the masses. You could buy Bitcoin with as little fiat money as you had. This, and the fact that it was digital, and global, gave it the mass appeal finally shooting the price to stratospheric levels. So hold on to your horses in case you don’t know this and you start screaming and spook them – As we explain in our book Splitting Bits – we believe based on available public evidence that the creator of Bitcoin was the NSA, either as a sub-unit or an individual working for the NSA.
We have no smoking gun evidence – but no one else does as far as any alternative creator. Our scenario is simply the most plausible – it’s not necessarily the facts. There is not 100% fact showing the real face of the creator of Bitcoin. And the NSA will not confirm or deny it’s involvement, but it will provide a statement to an FOIA request that it will not confirm nor deny if such information would be or would not be classified (of course). But what’s interesting is that, the NSA is reportedly monitoring Bitcoin transactions under a program called MONEYROCKET: For instance, one memo from the NSA, the report cited, suggested the agency has collected private information such as bitcoin user passwords, internet activity and device identifiers.
According to the report, the NSA has been monitoring the internet activities of bitcoin users since 2013 through a program with codename as OAKSTAR. And yet the new leak suggested that with MONKEYROCKET, another sub-program under OAKSTAR, the NSA may be moving closer to pinpoint users who initiate a cryptocurrency transaction."SSG11 analysts have found value in the MONKEYROCKET access to help track down senders and receivers of bitcoin," one memo reads.
If these memos are real, and there is no reason to believe they are not, they are likely an indicator of what’s really going on, such a program would likely involve a team of people, millions of dollars, and hundreds or thousands of documents. NSA didn’t setup MONKEYROCKET to track down a few money launderers. It’s not their job, really.. Going back to the Facebook analogy, we have to consider 1) how Bitcoin goes up and 2) how Bitcoin is primarily a grassroots movement from the fringe. Crypto is the next bubble, we can ride the bubble – but here we will make a bombastic claim: Bitcoin is the MySpace. Bitcoin isn’t ‘the bubble’ actually Bitcoin is a poorly designed currency and remember that for Bitcoin there was no ICO. This ICO terrible idea was popularized mostly by quasi criminals who were ineligible for registration. We’re referring to financial criminals, the new mafia (they have evolved from the days of protection insurance, etc.), fraudsters, Ponzi scammers, and other similar elements the Crypto world has attracted. Bitcoin is the social media of finance. But instead of sharing photos of old friends and breakfast choices, Bitcoin enabled a higher element of socialization, i.e. ‘hey I just made 10,000% return on my money, you might want to check this out.” It’s like the .com boom on steroids, and it was global (Bitcoin isn’t a US product per se). In order to ‘spend’ Bitcoin it was necessary for early adopters to engage in viral marketing to make Bitcoin viable. The concept of fully electronic money is not new, but in 1989 David Chaum’s DigiCash failed, for a number of reasons but the most likely was the fact that the internet didn’t have the penetration in 1990 as it did in 2010. Social Media and the internet was a conduit for Bitcoin. And Bitcoin quickly gave birth to Ethereum, and now there are more than 2,000 crypto currencies being built and developed on an exponential pace. Ironically though, there is only one regulated futures contract at the CME, Bitcoin Futures, and only 1 regulated ICO – the tZERO ICO (*it is ‘registered’ not ‘regulated’ but the point here is that tZERO has followed SEC guidelines, and they are a regulated company – they aren’t based in BFE with a bunch of John Doe’s as their Advisors). Our point here is that Bitcoin did what it set out to do – start a race of development which is fueled by the mania created by the 1,000,000% BTC/USD chart. Something like a million percent return never happened, and likely will never again. The group that created Bitcoin whoever they are, know very well that the large banks control the system and there is no hope of creating a ‘parallel’ system without the blessing of Wall St. and DC, this was most notably proven with Chile’s Project Cybersyn:
Project Cybersyn was a Chilean project from 1971–1973 during the presidency of Salvador Allende aimed at constructing a distributed decision support system to aid in the management of the national economy. The project consisted of four modules: an economic simulator, custom software to check factory performance, an operations room, and a national network of telex machines that were linked to one mainframe computer.
Project Cybersyn was based on viable system model theory and a neural network approach to organizational design, and featured innovative technology for its time: it included a network of telex machines (Cybernet) in state-run enterprises that would transmit and receive information with the government in Santiago. Information from the field would be fed into statistical modeling software (Cyberstride) that would monitor production indicators (such as raw material supplies or high rates of worker absenteeism) in real time, and alert the workers in the first case, and in abnormal situations also the central government, if those parameters fell outside acceptable ranges. The information would also be input into economic simulation software (CHECO, for CHilean ECOnomic simulator) that the government could use to forecast the possible outcome of economic decisions. Finally, a sophisticated operations room (Opsroom) would provide a space where managers could see relevant economic data, formulate responses to emergencies, and transmit advice and directives to enterprises and factories in alarm situations by using the telex network.
The project was so head of its time, what a desktop computer can calculate was 10x more powerful than warehouses full of computers in 1971. But the idea had to be squashed and Allende was taken out and replaced with a US friendly regime. The timing of this dismantling of the world’s first AI economic management system, coinciding with Nixon’s creation of the floating FX regime, perhaps the opposite of intelligence, should be noted. Analysis & Conclusion So here’s the deal with Bitcoin and Crypto. The big wave, the paradigm shift – it’s going to be in the regulated coin space – the Dollar Cryptos, Fedcoin, Crypto Rubble, and Crypto securities. When you can buy and sell Crypto on regulated exchanges – then you’re going to see a real paradigm shift. And that’s coming – but slowly.
Over the past year, Lund says he’s met with 20 central banks exploring the potential benefits of issuing their own fiat cryptocurrency on a blockchain. Specifically, he described the “most durable digital asset” as one that is “issued by a central bank that represents a claim on fiat deposits in the real world,” but still maintains “some semblance of monetary policy.” Though he wouldn’t reveal the names of most of the central banks with which he’s meeting, he described them as largely comprised of banks from the G20, an international forum with members including China, Russia, the U.S. and the EU. Lund further described the central banks as “clients in some capacity.” Based on these conversations, he said he expects the first central banks to issue a fiat currency on a blockchain will be “the smaller ones” with a high concentration of interest in Asia and North America.
Is Bitcoin going to 50,000? Probably not. But Bitcoin’s rise to 20,000 surprised many, so it would not be surprising if it went to 100,000. Just remember one thing – the only thing that makes Bitcoin go up is buying and no selling. Selling pressure from Mt. Gox trustees put sell side pressure on Bitcoin as they unloaded Billions of USD worth of Coins on the market. Bitcoin whales that control a huge chunk of available supply could sell. The only thing that can make Bitcoin go up to 50,000 are billions in USD worth of buy orders. There is a physical limit to the price of Bitcoin based on how much fiat currency there is in the world. For example if every available US Dollar, Euro, and all other fiat currencies converted ALL of themselves to Bitcoin it would go very high, and we can calculate what that number might look like. But it is a number it is not infinite. The same can be said for stock, real estate, or other bubbles – this is bubble dynamics 101 something that the Bitcoin crowd mostly misses. Here’s the demotivational speech. So we are claiming that Bitcoin is the MySpace and the “Facebook” of Bitcoin is still to be developed. Just like in the pre-IPO space, investors are looking at in the best case 20x – 100x returns if they catch it. Of course, it will not be easy to know WHICH of the 10,000 new coins is going to be the next Facebook. But likely it will be one backed by Goldman Sachs, it will be made in Silicon Valley or in Berlin, and it will be regulated. Regulated Crypto is the future. 10 years from now probably all assets will be Crypto assets – only because of the security and efficiency features. The global FX markets for example, something Crypto stands to revolutionize, are really outdated, and didn’t really change their model since FX was created by Richard Nixon in 1971. Even until 2007 banks engaged a majority of their volume on ‘voice orders’ ! The global financial system has been ripe for an upgrade, and what Bitcoin did it said this to the world. It sent a message which was well received by Main St. investors, Wall St. financial engineers, and politicians alike. Now, they are pedal to the metal coding and designing around the clock. The first coin in the class we are referring to here is Basis, backed by Wall St. and Silicon Valley and cooked up in a frat room at Princeton, perhaps the most Elite of the finance schools depending on who you are debating.
Investors apparently love what Basis is cooking up. The upstart is announcing today that it has raised a somewhat stunning $133 million in funding from Bain Capital Ventures, GV, longtime hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller, one-time Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Foundation Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, WingVC, NFX Ventures, Valor Capital, Zhenfund, Ceyuan, Sky Capital, Digital Currency Group and others.
The coin idea here is a ‘Stable Coin’ – which isn’t a unique idea, it is more of a sub-movement in the Crypto community. While Bitcoin got the world’s attention, it is a poor spending currency, certainly not a store of value, and the Blockchain technology behind Bitcoin is basic, although stable, does not represent the best of what Blockchain can do, as many other coin startups have pointed out. How this will save the financial system? It is a transition to a new global financial regime. Crypto Currency itself is not such an amazing development. In Scandinavian countries they have been using digital electronic money for years. What’s the difference really between Bitcoin in your wallet or your 100,000 USD at the bank? The banking system has become bloated, inefficient, and in great need of reform. New markets will open up which are Crypto-denominated. Trading strategies will evolve that were not before possible. The establishment will not be destroyed, by design – Bitcoin requires vast amounts of electricity to be mined. So unless the next ICO is going to raise $10 Billion to build ‘clean’ Thorium nuclear reactors, Bitcoin is not so different than the Petro Dollar as it must pay it’s utilities in USD from mining. Of course that’s just one model as shown by Bitcoin – but there are others – countless others. Bitcoin started a chain of events (pun intended) that will lead to the next ‘paradigm’ of currency.
This deep analysis report was commissioned by Bloc10
authored by Global Intel Hub.
4/29/2018 for the 'Blogosphere'
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