4 C’s That Could Change The Financial World As We Know It, Again

Those 4 C’s are: Confirmation, Crisis, Contagion, Catastrophe.
What type of confirmation could send the financial markets into such turmoil it could rock the very bastions of finance as we now know it?
First: Scotland votes yes to leave the U.K. If this turns out to be so, it could send shock-waves throughout the markets that run the world. i.e., Forex or World currencies.
No one with any financial acumen can look seriously at the markets as they stand at the time of this writing, and seriously argue the markets are prepared for such a resolution happening this Thursday.
If Scotland truly does vote Yes and confirms independence from the U.K. the initial shock-waves in my opinion that will hit the markets will be akin to the video we’ve all seen 1000 times when a nuclear device is unleashed with a house being obliterated. Or, the one where trees are bent over near flat to then reverse back the same.
In my humble opinion this could be a metaphor of what could take place. The reason is simple: By proof of the markets as they stand today, it is proof prima facie that everyone (especially so-called “smart crowd”) thinks it won’t happen. And the odds via polling alone show it to be the equivalent of a coin toss!
If this happens it will also confirm something just as real, and quite possibly far more instructive: With both a Federal Reserve meeting being held just days prior to such an event, the language out of this meeting could not be more important.
If it’s some revised boilerplate “till conditions improve, extended period, blah, blah, blah” based press release and conference, it will again confirm what many believed from the start, The Fed is both deaf, blind, and ill prepared to handle what might be an event such as this. An event that has the potential to make the crisis of 2008 the equivalent of a firecracker as opposed to what might be unleashed if Scotland does indeed secede.
The ramifications are truly unknown, unquantifiable, and what might be worse – unmanageable.
Then we move to crisis.
Just how does the Federal Reserve handle such a dilemma of this scale? I use the word “scale” for good reason. As many may know the Forex markets dwarf what the lovingly referred to as “mom and pop investor” believe it to be.
The saving of the “stock market” (aka the Equity Markets) in 2008 vs a Forex market crisis is the equivalent of bailing out a local bingo hall as compared to dealing with such a crisis on the scale of Las Vegas casino.
If the Forex market suddenly gets rocked with a clear fundamental breakdown and breakup of everything now known as the E.U. Along with all the tentacle entangled carry trades? Crisis might be an understatement.
Contagion across the Forex exchanges will not only wreak havoc from within it will also spread directly to the Bond markets. (which many don’t realize is also considerably larger themselves than the equity markets)
Such sweeping turmoil will most assuredly plunge the equity markets themselves into complete and utter chaos as money managers, market makers, margin executives and more decree: “Sell Everything, Close Everything, Now!”
What chaos might also be unleashed as the High Frequency Trading (HFT) algos are set loose selling anything and everything into a market where it’s suddenly revealed via news reading computers that the jig is up?
Or, what no one (and I mean no one!) thought possible till this week. What if this was the week HFT decides to not skirt the laws, but to now – obey them?! i.e., CME Rule 575 as explained by ZeroHedge: These Kinds Of Market-Rigging “Practices” Will No Longer Be Allowed On The CME
This could make the current Ebola crisis and concerns about the speed and severity of contagion look like the sniffles in a kindergarten class.
The panic, fear, mistrust, alienation, ___________(fill in the blank) that holders of what once believed were liquid assets on their books will find out rather quickly nothing runs quicker down the drain than paper gains and wealth.
If all this plays out, what will follow will be a blow to the IPO market and all it has morphed into these last few years with “free money.” So much so that one will think they actually saw Thor’s Hammer. Alibaba™ stands to be “the” poster child for top ticking headlines like never before.
Friday their stock hits the market in what has been touted as one of the most sought after and highly demanded offerings. So much so that they were able to wrap their road show early.
All this in an era of low if not non-existent GDP figures of recent memory. Along with real unemployment, and other metrics screaming recession, however these are adjusted, tweaked or adulterated so much so – it would make a vocal harmonizer jealous.
If Alibaba finds itself trying to release an IPO in this potential melee it will have ramification not only for its own offering, but for every single current high flyer in the markets from now until who knows when. The issue is not just if this happens, but what happens for everything else -if?
A catastrophe is quite possibly in the making. But it is still all in the hands of nothing more than the odds in a flip of a coin. We’ll know more Thursday when Scotland votes. Until then what we truly know is less about what if, and more about – if not.
However we do know a couple of things today that we didn’t know just 5 years ago.
First is, we understand the markets are not what people think they are. Second, the Fed is not as omnipotent as most believe. Third, 70% to 80% of what the “mom and pop” 401K holders think are trades in the markets, is an illusion. Fourth: Everyone, including many of the very professionals that work and breathe Wall Street have learned absolutely nothing since the Lehman crisis.
And what’s maybe more important than all of those combined?
They believe the chances of it repeating are not only nil, they’re betting it wont. Besides they still believe: “The Fed’s got their back!”
Problem is – will the Fed be able to save its own rear end if it does happen? Let alone theirs.
We’ll know soon enough.

About the author

Related

We've been closely watching the Crypto Currency Market if you can call it that, with all the fake data, fraud, and related problems.  One thing stands out - it's not so different than FX, commodities, futures, or stocks.  Market dyn...

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies flash-crashed Saturday night, one day after the US Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) sent subpoenas four cryptocurrency exchanges in an ongoing probe into bitcoin manipulation that began in late July - following the launch of bitcoin futures on the CME, according to the Wall Street Journal
CME’s bitcoin futures derive their final value from prices at four bitcoin exchangesBitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and KrakenManipulative trading in those markets could skew the price of bitcoin futures that the government directly regulates.
In delay reaction, Bitcoin fell as much as $433 or 5.6% in Saturday night trading, with some noting that the flash crash happened shortly after a 90th ranked crypto exchange, Coinrail, had suffered a "cyber intrusion", and was likely the more relevant catalyst for the crypto price drop.
While major Cryptocurrencies were down from 4.5 - 5.5%, Bitcoin Cash dropped over 8.4%. 
The CTFC subpoenas were issued after several of the exchanges refused to voluntarily share trading data with the CME after being asked last December. Of note, the CFTC regulates the CTC. 
According to the WSJ, the CME, which launched bitcoin futures in December, asked the four exchanges to share reams of trading data after its first contract settled in January, people familiar with the matter said. But several of the exchanges declined to comply, arguing the request was intrusive. The exchanges ultimately provided some data, but only after CME limited its request to a few hours of activity, instead of a full day, and restricted to a few market participants, the people added.
What is curious, is that if there was indeed manipulation since the launch of bitcoin futures, it was to the downside, as the price of cryptos peaked around the time the crypto futures were launched, and are down well over 50% in the 6 months since.
Coinbase in particular has been under the watch government regulators. On February 23, Coinbase sent an official notice to around 13,000 customers to notify them they were legally required to turn over their information to the IRS
The IRS had initially asked Coinbase in July 2017 to hand over even more detailed information on every one of its then over 500,000 users in an attempt catch those cheating on their taxes. However, another court order in Nov. 2017 reduced this number to around 14,000 “high-transacting” users, which the platform now reports as 13,000, in what Coinbase calls a “partial, but still significant, victory for Coinbase and its customers.”
Coinbase told the around 13,000 affected customers that the company would be providing their taxpayer ID, name, birth date, address, and historical transaction records from 2013-2015 to the IRS within 21 days. Coinbase’s letter to these customers encourages them “to seek legal advice from an attorney promptly” if they have any questions. Their website also states that concerns may also be addressed on Coinbase’s Taxes FAQ. The ongoing legal battle between Coinbase and the US government dates back to November, 2016, when the IRS filed a “John Doe summons” in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California.
On Feb. 13, personal finance service Credit Karma released data showing that only 0.04 percent of their customers had reported cryptocurrencies on their federal tax returns. 
And in April, former New York Attorney General, Eric "we could rarely have sex without him beating me" Schneiderman, launched a probe of 13 major cryptocurrency exchanges according to the Wall Street Journal - claiming that investors dealing in the fast-growing markets often don’t have the basic facts needed to protect themselves.
Former AG Schneiderman’s office said the program, called Virtual Markets Integrity Initiative,  is part of its responsibility to protect consumers and ensure the integrity of financial markets, and its goal is to ensure that investors can have a better understanding of the risks and protections afforded them on these sites.
CFTC Commissioner: Crypto is a "modern miracle"
While the CFTC, IRS and New York Attorney General's office are all cracking down on cryptocurrency exchanges, it seems to all be part of the government's embrace of virtual currencies.  Last week CFTC Commissioner Rostin Benham called cryptocurrencies a "modern miracleat the Blockchain For Impact Summit held at the UN in New York last week. 
But virtual currencies may – will – become part of the economic practices of any country, anywhere.  Let me repeat that:  these currencies are not going away and they will proliferate to every economy and every part of the planet.  Some places, small economies, may become dependent on virtual assets for survival.  And, these currencies will be outside traditional monetary intermediaries, like government, banks, investors, ministries, or international organizations.
We are witnessing a technological revolution.  Perhaps we are witnessing a modern miracle. -Rostin Benham
Rostin hinted at the upcoming legal action against the exchanges during his speech:
Under the CEA and Commission regulations and related guidance, exchanges have the responsibility to ensure that their Bitcoin futures products and their cash-settlement process are not readily susceptible to manipulation and the entity has sufficient capital to protect itself.  The CFTC has the authority to ensure compliance. In addition, the CFTC has legal authority over virtual currency derivatives in support of anti-fraud and manipulation including enforcement authority in the underlying markets.

Meanwhile, the official Bitcoin website removed references to Coinbase, Blockchain.com and Bitpay, according to Crypto News - only one of which, Coinbase, was subpoenaed. 
http://Bitcoin.org  just removed/censored the 2 largest US Bitcoin companies (@BitPay Payment processing and @coinbase Bitcoin Exchange). It’s a good move: Bitcoin Core is obviously no longer Bitcoin, and should ideally be removed from both @BitPay and @coinbase too.

The CFTC officially recognized bitcoin as a commodity in September of 2015 when it went after Coinflip for operating a platform for trading bitcoin options without the proper authorization. Since the agency effectively asserted its dominance over the bitcoin market with that decision, this is the first time it has given its blessing to an bitcoin options trading platform. Expect a burst of institutional trading activity to follow - especially since they approved institutional options trading in July
This post sponsored by Total Cryptos @ www.totalcryptos.com  

forex

Follow Global Intel Hub

Follow GIH and get free updates on Global Intelligence, Analysis, and more.

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

%d bloggers like this: